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ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

机译：气候模式中的ENSO表示：从CMIP3到CMIP5

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摘要

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20-50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.
机译：我们分析了CMIP3和CMIP5耦合海洋-大气一般环流模型（CGCM）的能力，以模拟热带太平洋平均状态和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。 CMIP5多模型合奏显示了令人鼓舞的西太平洋普遍冷偏差降低了30％，但与CMIP3相比，ENSO性能没有任何量子飞跃。因此，可以将CMIP3和CMIP5视为一个用于多模型ENSO分析的大型集成（CMIP3 + CMIP5）。但是，CMIP5 ENSO振幅中太大的多样性在CMIP5中减小了两倍，并且ENSO生命周期（表面温度异常的位置，季节性锁相）得到了适度的改善。但ENSO的其他基本特征（如中太平洋降水异常）仍然表现不佳。在CMIP5集合中，海面温度（SST）潜热通量反馈略有改善，但风SST反馈仍被低估了20-50％，短波SST反馈仍被低估了两倍。因此，ENSO幅度的改善可能是由误差补偿引起的。 CMIP模型模拟SST-短波反馈的能力，这是CGCM中ENSO错误的主要来源。在观测中，这种反馈是强烈非线性的，因为在季节和年际变化的影响下，实际大气从下陷（正反馈）切换到对流（负反馈）状态。仅有三分之一的CMIP3 + CMIP5模型重现了这种状态转换，而其他模型则锁定在两种状态之一中。建模的短波反馈非线性随ENSO幅度的增加而增加，弹簧中该反馈的幅度与模型模拟ENSO锁相的能力密切相关。在最后阶段，提出了度量的子集，以便综合每个CMIP3和CMIP5模型模拟ENSO主要特征和关键大气反馈的能力。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2014年第8期|1999-2018|共20页
  • 作者

    H. Bellenger; E. Guilyardi; J. Leloup; M. Lengaigne; J. Vialard;

  • 作者单位

    LOCEAN (UMPC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), IPSL, Paris, France;

    LOCEAN (UMPC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), IPSL, Paris, France ,NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, UK;

    LOCEAN (UMPC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), IPSL, Paris, France;

    LOCEAN (UMPC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), IPSL, Paris, France;

    LOCEAN (UMPC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), IPSL, Paris, France;

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