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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Influences of climate change on California and Nevada regions revealed by a high-resolution dynamical downscaling study
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Influences of climate change on California and Nevada regions revealed by a high-resolution dynamical downscaling study

机译：高分辨率动态降尺度研究揭示了气候变化对加利福尼亚和内华达州地区的影响

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摘要

In this study, the influence of climate change to California and Nevada regions was investigated through high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) dynamical downscaling using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model. The dynamical downscaling was performed to both the GFS (Global forecast model) reanalysis (called GFS-WRF runs) from 2000-2006 and PCM (Parallel Climate Model) simulations (called PCM-WRF runs) from 1997-2006 and 2047-2056. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing current model outputs with the observational analysis PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) dataset. In general, the dominant features from GFS-WRF runs and PCM-WRF runs were consistent with each other, as well as with PRISM results. The influences of climate change on the California and Nevada regions can be inferred from the model future runs. The averaged temperature showed a positive trend in the future, as in other studies. The temperature increases by around 1-2℃ under the assumption of business as usual over 50 years. This leads to an upward shifting of the freezing level (the contour line of 0℃ temperature) and more rain instead of snow in winter (December, January, and February). More hot days (>32.2℃ or 90°F) and extreme hot days (>37.8℃ or 100°F) are predicted in the Sacramento Valley and the southern parts of California and Nevada during summer (June, July, and August). More precipitation is predicted in northern California but not in southern California. Rainfall frequency slightly increases in the coast regions, but not in the inland area. No obvious trend of the surface wind was indicated. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of daily temperature, wind and precipitation for California and Nevada showed no significant change in shape in either winter or summer. The spatial distributions of precipitation frequency from GFS-WRF and PCM-WRF were highly correlated (r = 0.83). However, overall positive shifts were seen in the temperature field; increases of 2℃ for California and 3℃ for Nevada in summer and 2.5℃ for California and 1.5℃ for Nevada in winter. The PDFs predicted higher precipitation in winter and lower precipitation in the summer for both California and Nevada.
机译：在这项研究中，气候变化对加利福尼亚和内华达州地区的影响是通过使用WRF（天气研究与预报）模型的高分辨率（4 km网格间距）动态降尺度研究的。对2000-2006年的GFS（全球预报模型）再分析（称为GFS-WRF运行）和1997-2006年和2047-2056的PCM（并行气候模型）模拟（称为PCM-WRF运行）进行了动态降级。首先通过将当前模型输出与观测分析PRISM（独立斜坡模型上的参数高程回归）数据集进行比较来验证缩减结果。通常，GFS-WRF运行和PCM-WRF运行的主要特征相互一致，并且与PRISM结果一致。可以从模型的未来运行中推断出气候变化对加利福尼亚和内华达州地区的影响。像其他研究一样，未来的平均温度显示出正趋势。在50年内照常工作的情况下，温度会升高1-2℃左右。这导致冻结水平（温度为0℃的等高线）向上移动，而在冬季（12月，1月和2月）则降雨更多，而不是降雪。预计夏季（6月，7月和8月）的萨克拉曼多山谷以及加利福尼亚州和内华达州南部会出现更多的高温（> 32.2℃或90°F）和极端高温（> 37.8℃或100°F）。加利福尼亚北部地区预计会有更多降水，而南部加利福尼亚地区则不会。沿海地区的降雨频率略有增加，但内陆地区则没有。没有发现表面风的明显趋势。加利福尼亚州和内华达州的每日温度，风和降水的概率分布函数（PDF）在冬季或夏季均未显示出明显的形状变化。 GFS-WRF和PCM-WRF降水频率的空间分布高度相关（r = 0.83）。但是，在温度场中看到了总体正向变化；夏季加州上升2℃，内华达州上升3℃，加州上升2.5℃，冬季上升内华达1.5℃。 PDF预测加利福尼亚和内华达州的冬季降水较高，夏季的降水较低。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2011年第10期|p.2005-2020|共16页
  • 作者

    Lin-Lin Pan; Shu-Hua Chen; Dan Cayan; Mei-Ying Lin; Quinn Hart; Ming-Hua Zhang; Yubao Liu; Jianzhong Wang;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources,University of California, One Shields Avenue,Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources,University of California, One Shields Avenue,Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography,University of California, San Diego, CA, USA;

    Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute,Taichung, Taiwan;

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources,University of California, One Shields Avenue,Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources,University of California, One Shields Avenue,Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA;

    California Department of Water Resources,Sacramento, CA, USA;

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