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Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes

机译：夏季夏季温度变化的未来变化：极端温度的驱动过程和作用

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摘要

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer temperature extremes, not only due to the mean warming itself, but also due to changes in temperature variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyse daily output of ten PRUDENCE regional climate model scenarios over Europe for the 2071-2100 period. The models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly over the Mediterranean and the transitional climate zone (TCZ, between the Mediterranean to the south and the Baltic Sea to the north). The projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is found to be largest over France (in the region of maximum variability increase) rather than the Mediterranean (where the mean warming is largest). The underlying changes in temperature variability may arise from changes in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over France and depending upon the model, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to significantly increase by 20-40% as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (30-95%), seasonal variability (35-105%), and intraseasonal variability (10-30%). Variability changes in northern and southern Europe are substantially smaller. Over France and parts of the TCZ, the models simulate a progressive warming within the summer season (corresponding to an increase in seasonal variability), with the projected temperature change inrnAugust exceeding that in June by 2-3 K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of the current seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period (enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). The processes driving the variability changes are different for the three components but generally relate to enhanced land-atmosphere coupling and/or increased variability of surface net radiation, accompanied by a strong reduction of cloudiness, atmospheric circulation changes and a progressive depletion of soil moisture within the summer season. The relative contribution of these processes differs substantially between models.
机译：人为温室气体的排放预计将导致更频繁和更强烈的夏季极端温度，这不仅是由于平均变暖本身，而且还由于温度可变性的变化。为了检验该假设，我们分析了2071-2100年期间欧洲十种PRUDENCE区域气候模型情景的日产量。这些模型预测出更频繁的极端温度，特别是在地中海和过渡气候带（TCZ，介于地中海南部和北部的波罗的海之间）。发现在法国（在最大变异性增加的地区）而不是地中海（平均变暖最大的地区）上，夏季夏季最高温度的预计变暖最大。温度可变性的根本变化可能源于（1）年际温度可变性，（2）季节内可变性和（3）季节周期的变化。我们提出了一种方法，将总的每日变化分解为这三个组成部分。在法国范围内，根据模型的不同，由于以下三个因素的增加，预计夏季夏季总的每日温度变化将显着增加20-40％：年际变化（30-95％），季节性变化（35-105％） ）和季节内变异（10-30％）。北欧和南欧的变异性变化要小得多。在法国和TCZ的部分地区，这些模型模拟了夏季的逐步升温（对应于季节变化的增加），预计8月份的温度变化比6月的温度变化高2-3K。因此，最明显的升温在当前季节周期的最大时间上叠加了极端天气，导致更高的极端强度并延长了夏季（即使在9月也能实现极端温度和热浪）。对于这三个部分，驱动变化率变化的过程是不同的，但通常与增强的陆-气耦合和/或增加表面净辐射的变化性有关，伴随着云量的强烈减少，大气环流变化以及土壤水分的逐步消耗夏季。这些过程的相对贡献在模型之间存在很大差异。

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