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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Characteristics of internal variability on summer rainfall in Northeast Asia in a changing climate
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Characteristics of internal variability on summer rainfall in Northeast Asia in a changing climate

机译：气候变化下东北亚夏季降水内部变化特征

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摘要

Using a 35-ensemble member simulated with the community earth system model-large ensemble (CESM-LE) experiment, we examined the characteristics of internal variability (IV) on the Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomaly (NASRA) in a changing climate. The NASRA, which is defined as the rainfall anomaly averaged across Northeast Asia (30 degrees-40 degrees N, 115 degrees-145 degrees E), consists of the tropics-related rainfall anomaly and the extratropics-related rainfall anomaly. In this study, the IV was estimated by the spread of rainfall simulated in each ensemble member from their ensemble mean. The IV associated with the tropics-related rainfall variability did not change significantly from the present climate to a future climate. In contrast, the IV associated with the NASRA gradually increased from the mid-twenty first century and this was mostly due to an increase of IV associated with the extratropics-related rainfall variability. This implies that the predictability of NASRA may decrease in a future changing climate because of the extratropics-related rainfall variability associated with zonal atmospheric wave train patterns including Eurasian-like pattern, Silk Road pattern or Circumglobal Teleconnection pattern. We also discussed the characteristic change of IV associated with the tropics-related and the extratropics-related rainfall variability in a future warmer climate.
机译：使用由社区地球系统模型大集合（CESM-LE）实验模拟的35个集合成员，我们研究了气候变化时东北亚夏季降水异常（NASRA）的内部变率（IV）特征。 NASRA定义为整个东北亚（北纬30度至40度，东经115度至145度）的平均降水异常，它由与热带有关的降水异常和与与温带有关的降水异常组成。在本研究中，IV是根据每个集合成员中的平均降雨模拟的降雨扩散来估算的。与热带相关的降雨变化相关的IV从目前的气候到未来的气候没有明显变化。相比之下，与NASRA相关的IV从20世纪中叶开始逐渐增加，这主要是由于与与温带相关的降雨变化相关的IV的增加。这意味着由于与纬向大气波列模式（包括欧亚样模式，丝路模式或环全球遥相关模式）相关的与温带相关的降雨变化，在未来变化的气候中，NASRA的可预测性可能会降低。我们还讨论了在未来变暖的气候中，与热带相关和与温带相关的降雨变化相关的IV的特征变化。

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