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UNFCCC before and after Paris - what's necessary for an effective climate regime?

机译：巴黎前后的《联合国气候变化框架公约》-有效的气候制度需要什么？

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What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.Policy relevanceThe international community is negotiating a new global climate agreement, to be adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 in Paris and to be applicable from 2020. This article analyses the successes and limitations the UNFCCC has had so far in combating climate change and it develops recommendations on how to enhance efforts within and beyond the framework of the Convention. From our analysis we derive two main recommendations for an effective and structurationally balanced treaty: First, multidimensional mitigation contributions going beyond emission targets could strongly improve countries' abilities to tailor their contributions around national political discourses. Second, the UNFCCC regime should be complemented with another treaty outside of the UNFCCC framework. This Alliance of the Ambitious' would allow the pioneers of climate protection to move ahead and enjoy the benefits of cooperation. The dynamics generated through such a club approach could be fed back into the UNFCCC, leading to increased ambition by others in future commitment cycles.
机译：从《联合国气候变化框架公约》进程和2015年巴黎气候会议可以合理预期到什么？为了实现变革，必须将嵌入社会经济系统中的普遍不可持续的惯例转化为可持续的新惯例。本文通过应用结构化的制度模型，将《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其相关政策流程概念化，以此作为这种翻译的催化剂。该模型提供了规则（规范和共同含义）和资源（经济资源以及权威和分配能力）的分析区别，并允许我们在各个级别（包括民族国家之外）概念化代理。分析得出的结论是，事实证明，《联合国气候变化框架公约》对排放目标的狭focus关注本质上是对资源的关注，但事实证明效果不佳。此外，工业化国家和发展中国家在《公约》附件中的静态划分以及基于共识的决策规则阻碍了雄心勃勃的气候保护。文章的结论是，《联合国气候变化框架公约》具有更好的能力来为气候保护活动提供规则，并应自觉地扩展这一功能以改善其影响。政策相关性国际社会正在谈判一项新的全球气候协议，该协议将在缔约方大会上通过（ COP 21）将于2015年12月在巴黎举行，并将于2020年开始适用。本文分析了UNFCCC迄今为止在应对气候变化方面的成功与局限，并就如何在《公约》框架之内和之外加强努力提出了建议。从我们的分析中，我们得出了有关有效和结构上平衡的条约的两个主要建议：首先，超出减排目标的多维减排贡献可以极大地提高各国根据国家政治话语量身定制其贡献的能力。第二，《联合国气候变化框架公约》制度应辅以《联合国气候变化框架公约》框架之外的另一项条约。 “雄心勃勃的联盟”将使气候保护的先驱者能够向前发展并享受合作带来的好处。通过这种俱乐部方式产生的动力可以反馈给《联合国气候变化框架公约》，从而导致其他人在未来的承诺周期中更加雄心勃勃。

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