...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C
【24h】

Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C

机译：评估与全球升温2°C有关的近地表气候区域变化的强度

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In this study, the strength of the regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times is assessed, distinguishing between 26 different regions. Also, the strength of these regional climate changes is compared to the strength of the respective changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming of 4.5°C. The magnitude of the regional changes in climate is estimated by means of a normalized regional climate change index, which considers changes in the mean as well as changes in the interannual variability of both near-surface temperature and precipitation. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (1860–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. In the other set of simulations (2020–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. The study reveals the strongest changes in near-surface climate in the same regions for both scenarios, i.e., the Sahara, Northern Australia, Southern Australia and Amazonia. The regions with the weakest changes in near-surface climate, on the other hand, vary somewhat between the two scenarios except for Western North America and Southern South America, where both scenarios show rather weak changes. The comparison between the magnitude of the regional changes in near-surface climate for the two scenarios reveals relatively strong changes in the 2°C-stabilization scenario at high northern latitudes, i.e., Northeastern Europe, Alaska and Greenland, and in Amazonia. Relatively weak regional climate changes in this scenario, on the other hand, are found for Eastern Asia, Central America, Central South America and Southern South America. The ratios between the regional changes in the near-surface climate for the two scenarios vary considerably between different regions. This illustrates a limitation of obtaining regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a particular scenario by means of scaling the regional changes obtained from a widely used “standard” scenario with the ratio of the changes in the global mean temperature projected by these two scenarios.
机译：在这项研究中，评估了近地表气候与工业化前时间相关的全球升温2°C相关的区域变化的强度，从而区分了26个不同的区域。此外，将这些区域性气候变化的强度与与全球气温明显升高的4.5°C相关的相应变化的强度进行了比较。区域气候变化的幅度是通过归一化的区域气候变化指数估算的，该指数考虑了近地表温度和降水的平均值以及年际变化的变化。该研究基于ECHAM5 / MPI-OM耦合气候模型的两套四组整体模拟，每组均从不同的初始条件开始。在一组模拟（1860–2200）中，根据直到2000年的观测结果以及2000年之后的SRES A1B情景规定了温室气体浓度和硫酸盐气溶胶负荷。在另一组模拟（2020–2200）中，规定了温室气体浓度和硫酸盐气溶胶负荷，以使模拟的全球变暖相对于工业化前的时间不超过2°C。该研究揭示了在两种情况下，即撒哈拉沙漠，北澳大利亚，南澳大利亚和亚马逊地区，两种地区在同一地区的近地表气候变化最大。另一方面，近地表气候变化最弱的地区在这两种情况之间有所不同，除了北美西部和南美南部，这两种情况都显示出相当弱的变化。两种情况下近地表气候区域变化幅度的比较表明，在北高纬度地区，即东北欧，阿拉斯加和格陵兰以及亚马逊地区，2°C稳定状态的变化相对较大。另一方面，在这种情况下，发现东亚，中美洲，中南美洲和南美洲南部的区域气候变化相对较弱。在这两种情况下，近地表气候区域变化之间的比率在不同区域之间差异很大。这说明了通过缩放从广泛使用的“标准”情景中获得的区域变化与这两种情景所预测的全球平均温度变化之比来获得与特定情景相关的近地表气候区域变化的局限性。 。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2012年第4期|p.619-644|共26页
  • 作者

    Wilhelm May;

  • 作者单位
  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号