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Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios

机译：气候变化对尼罗河流域的水文影响：2007年IPCC情景的影响

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摘要

We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.
机译：我们使用宏观水文模型评估了气候变化对尼罗河流域水文和水资源的潜在影响。对模型输入进行了偏差校正，并根据2007年IPCC第四次评估报告（AR4）存档的11种通用循环模型（GCM）和两个全球排放情景（A2和B1）对21世纪的模拟进行了空间缩小。尽管所有GCM都同意21世纪温度变化的方向，但预计降水量变化的大小，方向和季节性存在很大差异。我们的模拟结果表明，由于降水量普遍增加，尼罗河在研究初期（2010-2039年）的平均流量预计将在所有11个GCM上平均增加。由于降水量的减少和蒸发需求的增加，预计在2040-2069年中叶和2070-2099年后期水流将减少。对于全球A2（B1）排放情景，高阿斯旺大坝（HAD）预测的多模型平均流量相对于历史（1950-1999）年平均年均值的百分比为111（114），92（93）和84（87）。通过量化HAD的年水力发电量和灌溉水排放量，分析了这些流量变化对尼罗河流域水资源的影响。灌溉的长期HAD释放量在本世纪初增加到历史的106（109）％，然后在第二期和第三期分别下降到历史的87（89）和86（84）％，分别为A2（ B1）全球排放情景。埃及民政事务总署的水力发电量将在21世纪初期超过年均10,000 GWH的历史平均水平，此后将大体上遵循潮流，但GCM之间存在较大差异。农业供水将受到不利影响，特别是在本世纪下半叶。

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