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Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project

机译：模拟极端气候的影响：MICE项目概述

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摘要

This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities undertaken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled “Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes” (MICE) – a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes – the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions).
机译：本文概述了目标，目的，开展的研究活动以及在欧洲委员会资助的题为“模拟极端气候的影响”（MICE）的项目中产生的结果。从气候模型到影响模型，评估气候变化对对该地区重要的一系列经济部门的潜在影响。会展重点关注温度，降水和极端风的变化。该研究计划具有三个主题：气候模型性能评估，极端事件发生时未来潜在变化的评估以及极端事件对定量活动和专家相结合的六个活动部门的影响的检查判断技巧。 MICE的结果是一个大型的以利益相关者为导向的研讨会，其目的不仅是传播项目成果，而且是建立新的利益相关者网络，其专门知识可以在诸如ENSEMBLES之类的未来项目中借鉴。会奖旅游是三个项目集群的一部分，全部与欧洲气候变化及其影响有关。集群中的其他项目是PRUDENCE（用于定义欧洲气候变化风险和影响的区域情景和不确定性预测）和STARDEX（欧洲地区极端情况的统计和区域动态降尺度）。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2007年第s1期|163-177|共15页
  • 作者

    C. E. Hanson; J. P. Palutikof; M. T. J. Livermore; L. Barring; M. Bindi; J. Corte-Real; R. Durao; C. Giannakopoulos; P. Good; T. Holt; Z. Kundzewicz; G. C. Leckebusch; M. Moriondo; M. Radziejewski; J. Santos; P. Schlyter; M. Schwarb; I. Stjernquist; U. Ulbrich;

  • 作者单位

    Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK;

    Hadley Centre Met Office Fitzroy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK;

    Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK;

    Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis Geobiosphere Science Centre Lund University Sölvegatan 12 223 62 Lund Sweden;

    Department of Agronomy and Land Management University of Florence Piazale delle Cascine 18 50144 Florence Italy;

    Instituto de Ciênca Aplicada e Tecnologia Faculdade de Ciêncas Universidade Lisboa Campo Grande 1749-016 Lisbon Portugal;

    Instituto de Ciênca Aplicada e Tecnologia Faculdade de Ciêncas Universidade Lisboa Campo Grande 1749-016 Lisbon Portugal;

    National Observatory of Athens Institute of Environmental Research ampamp Sustainable Development 15236 P. Penteli Athens Greece;

    National Observatory of Athens Institute of Environmental Research ampamp Sustainable Development 15236 P. Penteli Athens Greece;

    Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK;

    Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19 60809 Poznan Poland;

    Institute for Meteorology Freie Universität Berlin Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10 12165 Berlin Germany;

    Department of Agronomy and Land Management University of Florence Piazale delle Cascine 18 50144 Florence Italy;

    Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science Adam Mickiewicz University Umultowska 87 61-614 Poznañ Poland;

    Departamento de Física Centro de Geofísica Colégio Luís António Verney Universidade de Évora R. Romão Ramalho 59 7000 Évora Portugal;

    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm Sweden;

    Institute of Geography University of Bern Hallerstr. 12 3012 Bern Switzerland;

    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm Sweden;

    Institute for Meteorology Freie Universität Berlin Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10 12165 Berlin Germany;

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