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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula
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Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

机译：区域气候模型的集合预测的C21的最高极端温度对伊比利亚半岛谷物种植系统的影响

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摘要

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.
机译：在开花和籽粒充实的敏感发育时期，伊比利亚半岛上生长的农作物可能会遭受破坏性的高温。这些事件被认为是重要的危害，农民可以购买保险以抵消其影响。在20世纪，伊比利亚半岛观测到最高温度的值和频率增加，有关气候变化的研究表明，到21世纪末可能进一步增加。在此，评估了当前和未来高温对伊比利亚半岛谷物种植系统的影响，重点是冬季和夏季作物的脆弱发展时期。为此目的，使用了十个区域气候模型（多模型集合）与作物模拟模型相结合获得的气候变化情景，并估算了相关的不确定性。结果表明，最高温度的极端值对伊比利亚半岛的夏季作物构成威胁，但对冬季作物没有威胁。该研究强调了两个生长季节中农作物的脆弱性不同，以及在发展谷物作物系统的适应性过程中需要考虑极端温度的变化。最后，这项工作有助于澄清先前研究中高不确定性影响预测的原因。

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