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Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

机译：温室气体排放对世界农业，食品消费和经济福利的影响

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摘要

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO2 fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO2 fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO2-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.
机译：由于存在许多不确定性，因此对温室气体排放的与农业相关的经济影响进行定量估计时，其置信度通常较低。不确定性的主要来源是我们无法准确预测经济活动，排放和气候的未来变化。本文着重于两个问题。首先，气候变化的预测在多大程度上会产生与农业相关的经济影响的不确定性？其次，温室气体排放的与农业相关的经济影响在多大程度上取决于影响时的经济状况？结果表明，对于该分析中评估的大​​多数经济影响，由于气候变化预测而导致的不确定性相当大。结果还表明，影响时的经济状况会影响温室气体影响的相同预测的方向和规模以及对经济影响的信心。在此分析中表现最一致的经济变量是世界农作物产量。例如，在1990年和经济条件改善的情况下，全球平均气温的升高导致世界农作物产量平均下降，在这两种情况下，人们对气候变化预测的信心都中等（例如67％）或更高。此外，正如预期的那样，在1990年和改善的经济条件下，二氧化碳的施肥导致世界农作物平均增产。这些结果表明，作物产量可能是温室气体排放潜在影响的相当有力的指标。一个出乎意料的发现是，改善的经济状况并不一定是潜在的温室气体引起的损害的灵丹妙药，特别是在区域一级。实际上，在某些地区，当前经济条件下有益的气候变化或CO2 施肥的影响可能在经济条件改善（相对于新的经济基础）的情况下是有害的。在此分析中，澳大利亚和新西兰遭受这种影响，因为假定在经济条件改善的情况下，它们将从农产品出口中获得相对较大的收入份额。如果还包括此分析中的气候变化和二氧化碳施肥情景，则澳大利亚和新西兰的农产品出口平均下降。澳大利亚和新西兰农业收入的下降幅度太大，无法完全被其他部门收入的上升所抵消。这表明，依靠农业出口来获得较大比例收入的地区可能不仅容易受到气候导致的直接农业损害，而且还容易受到其他地方温室气体排放所产生的积极影响的影响。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2004年第2期|191-238|共48页
  • 作者

    Roy Darwin;

  • 作者单位

    U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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