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Sensitivity Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change on White Nile Flows

机译：气候变化对白尼罗河流量影响的敏感性研究

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Several exploratory studies are presented on the sensitivity of the water balance of the White Nile to climate change, using both observed and stochastic time series to drive the models. Example results are presented using various assumed climate change scenarios and results from a General Circulation Model (GCM). The relative merits and shortcomings of each modelling approach are also discussed. A simple analytical model for Lake Victoria is also used to illustrate some of the overall features of the lake's likely response. Particular difficulties with the White Nile system are that, due to the huge area of open water in the basin, transient responses to short-lived events can occur over timescales comparable with those for which long term climate change impacts are being studied, and predicted changes in flows are extremely sensitive to estimates for the rainfall and evaporation at lake and swamp surfaces. Of the modelling approaches considered, the network simulation approach with stochastic inputs is recommended as a way of smoothing out these transient effects, and assessing the uncertainty in the results due to inaccuracies in the data, the model parameters and the climate change predictions. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some other areas of uncertainty in the hydrological modelling of White Nile flows and possible alternative external forcing mechanisms for flows in the next few decades.
机译：利用观测时间序列和随机时间序列来驱动模型，对白尼罗河水平衡对气候变化的敏感性进行了一些探索性研究。使用各种假定的气候变化情景和通用循环模型（GCM）的结果，给出了示例结果。还讨论了每种建模方法的相对优缺点。维多利亚湖的简单分析模型还用于说明该湖可能响应的某些总体特征。白尼罗河系统的特殊困难在于，由于流域内广阔的开阔水域，与研究长期气候变化影响并预测变化的时间尺度可比的时间尺度上，可能会发生短暂事件的瞬态响应流量对湖泊和沼泽地表的降雨和蒸发量的估计极为敏感。在考虑的建模方法中，建议使用具有随机输入的网络模拟方法来平滑这些瞬态效应，并评估由于数据，模型参数和气候变化预测的不准确性而导致的结果不确定性。本文最后简要讨论了白尼罗河水流的水文模拟中的其他一些不确定性领域，以及在未来几十年中可能的替代性外强迫机制。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2001年第2期|177-208|共32页
  • 作者

    K. J. Sene; E. L. Tate; F. A. K. Farquharson;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formerly Institute of Hydrology);

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formerly Institute of Hydrology);

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formerly Institute of Hydrology);

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