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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part II. Accounting for Adaptation and CO2 Direct Effects
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Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part II. Accounting for Adaptation and CO2 Direct Effects

机译：根据高分辨率和低分辨率气候变化情景计算得出的气候变化对农业的影响的比较：第二部分。适应和二氧化碳直接影响的核算

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摘要

We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses tolow-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2), significantly different from simulated yield responses tohigh-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 × CO2 versus 2 × CO2)climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO2 levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity.
机译：我们断言，使用粗尺度气候变化情景模拟精细尺度的作物生长过程和农艺适应性管理，降低了对农艺适应性潜力区域估计的信心。具体来说，我们要求：1）适应后（不增加大气CO2的情况下）对低分辨率气候变化的模拟产量响应，与适应后（不进行和有条件的情况下）对高分辨率气候变化的模拟产量响应显着不同大气中的二氧化碳含量增加）？ 2）除了气候变化信息的规模外，土壤信息的规模还会影响适应后的产量吗？使用CSIRO通用环流模型（低分辨率）和美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR），以两个不同的空间分辨率模拟了大平原地区的平衡（1×CO2 与2×CO2 ）气候变化。 ）RegCM2区域气候模型（高分辨率）。 EPIC作物模型用于模拟这些气候变化的影响； EPIC的改编包括较早种植和改种较长季节的品种。在不同的空间分辨率下比较了调整后的产量（无二氧化碳和无二氧化碳）。我们对问题1的发现表明，在更高分辨率的气候变化模拟下，适应性在大多数情况下比其更广泛的低分辨率等效物更有效。我们不能说服高分辨率气候变化信息的使用提供了深入了解大气中二氧化碳水平升高对农作物的直接影响，而低分辨率信息则无法获得这些信息。但是，最后的发现可能部分是由于农业方面的良性CSIRO和RegCM2气候变化造成的。关于问题2，我们发现，土壤特征的高分辨率细节对于以持水能力差的土壤为代表的区域的适应模拟而言尤其重要。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2001年第2期|173-197|共25页
  • 作者

    W. E. Easterling; L. O. Mearns; C. J. Hays; D. Marx;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Geography and the Earth System Science Center The Pennsylvania State University;

    Environmental and Societal Impacts Group National Center for Atmospheric Research;

    School of Natural Resource Sciences University of Nebraska-Lincoln;

    Department of Biometry University of Nebraska-Lincoln;

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