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Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and TheoryChange

机译：异常证据，置信度变化和理论变化

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摘要

A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if “dose size” made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.
机译：在三个实验中使用一种新颖的实验范式来测量理论变化和对参与者理论的信心，以测试异常证据的影响。实验1改变了异常证据的数量，以查看“剂量大小”是否对理论变化充满信心。实验2改变了异常证据是收敛的（多种类型）还是重复的（重复相似的发现）。实验3改变了参与者是否提供了解释异常证据的替代理论。所有实验均表明，参与者的置信度变化与所提供的异常证据数量相称，而置信度下降的幅度较大则预测了理论变化。越来越多的证据和替代理论的提出导致更大的置信度变化。越来越多的证据也引起了更多的理论变化。即使人们不改变理论，与证据和替代理论相关的因素也会降低他们对当前理论的信心，并使他们逐渐接近理论变化。

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