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Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities

机译：凯恩斯动力学与工资价格螺旋：确定向下的刚性

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摘要

We develop a constrained bivariate switching model to explore empirically the behavior of wage and price Phillips-curves for high- and low-inflation regimes. Using this switching regression technique with a structural simultaneous equations model of Phillips curves, we identify significant lower floors for wage and price inflation. We interpret these lower floors as the relevant downward rigidity for wages and prices. Such floors imply that the adverse real-wage adjustment mechanism that can be identified in the high-inflation regime may disappear in the low-inflation regime, where money-wage inflation and price inflation, and thus real-wage movements, may become rigid. Consequently, the economy may be stabilized then, but trapped in a long period of stagnation in such a low-inflation situation. Such properties of kinked wage and price Phillips-curves are thus important and could also be of help to break another important destabilizing feedback channel, the Fisher debt deflation mechanism, according to which economies, in which highly indebted firms are unable to prevent price deflation, will experience severe crisis or even economic breakdown if the resulting deflationary spiral cannot be stopped.
机译：我们开发了一个受约束的双变量转换模型，以从经验上探索高通货膨胀率和低通货膨胀率的工资和价格菲利普斯曲线的行为。使用这种切换回归技术和菲利普斯曲线的结构联立方程模型，我们确定了工资和价格上涨的明显下限。我们将这些较低的楼层解释为工资和价格的向下下降刚性。这些底线意味着，可以在高通货膨胀率体制中发现的不利的实际工资调整机制可能会在低通货膨胀率体制中消失，在低通货膨胀率体制中，货币工资通胀和价格通胀，进而实际工资变动可能变得僵化。因此，当时的经济可能会稳定下来，但陷入这种低通货膨胀状况的长期停滞状态。因此，类似的工资和价格菲利普斯曲线的这种特性非常重要，也有助于打破另一个重要的破坏稳定的反馈渠道，即费舍尔债务通货紧缩机制。根据该机制，负债累累的公司无法防止价格通缩，如果通货紧缩螺旋无法制止，将面临严重的危机甚至经济崩溃。

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