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Disc revolution on the horizon

机译：光盘革命即将来临

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摘要

A lot of what we write about is pigeon step stuff; exciting but logical progression - a few more MHz or megabits, larger LCDs and cheaper Ram and Flash. The 'tipping points', as futurologists call them, come every few years. Sometimes they are obvious, like CD and DVD. Sometimes not; Sony's Walkman was at first written off as an expensive recorder that did not record and only worked with headphones. The hard disk personal video recorder only looked logical after Tivo. Sometimes the big steps come because technology has caught up with an old dream. Pulse code modulation was a pre-war idea. The plan to split the country up into radio cells so frequencies could be re-used dates back to the 1940s, but no-one could make it work until the 1980s. Spread spectrum is equally old. COFDM, the coded orthogonal frequency division multiplex system that makes digital TV and ADSL possible, began as an idea for digital radio. I vividly remember the first time I saw the impossible - full-motion video from a music CD, thanks to what later became mpeg1, and then mpeg2 and mpeg4. All these systems had to wait for huge, but cheap, processing power.
机译：我们写的很多东西都是鸽子的脚步。令人兴奋的但合乎逻辑的进步-更高的MHz或兆位，更大的LCD和更便宜的Ram和Flash。未来学家称之为“临界点”的现象每隔几年就会出现。有时它们很明显，例如CD和DVD。有时不是；索尼的Walkman最初是作为昂贵的录音机注销的，该录音机无法录音，只能使用耳机工作。硬盘个人录像机仅在Tivo之后看起来合乎逻辑。有时，大步前进是因为技术赶上了一个古老的梦想。脉冲编码调制是战前的想法。将国家划分为无线电小区以便可以重复使用频率的计划可以追溯到1940年代，但是直到1980年代，没人能使它工作。扩频同样古老。 COFDM是使数字电视和ADSL成为可能的编码正交频分多路复用系统，最初是数字无线电的构想。我生动地记得第一次见到不可能的东西-音乐CD上的全动态视频，这要归功于后来成为mpeg1，mpeg2和mpeg4的视频。所有这些系统都必须等待巨大但便宜的处理能力。

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