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Dual interval-and-fuzzy analysis method for temperature prediction with hybrid epistemic uncertainties via polynomial chaos expansion

机译:基于多项式混沌展开的混合认知不确定性温度双重区间模糊分析方法

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摘要

In both mathematical theory and engineering application, the uncertainty propagation problem with incomplete knowledge, especially when different types of epistemic uncertainties exist simultaneously, has been recognized as a challenge issue. By using interval variables and fuzzy variables to characterize the hybrid uncertainties with only boundary information and membership function, this paper proposes a new dual interval-and-fuzzy response analysis method for the thermal engineering system. In the presented dual-stage analysis framework, the temperature response ranges with respect to interval variables are firstly derived, and then the membership functions of response bounds with respect to fuzzy variables are calculated in virtue of level-cut strategy and fuzziness reconstruction. To avoid the huge computational burden caused by repetitive FEM simulations, the Legendre polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model for temperature response. Two Clenshaw-Curtis point-based collocation methods are proposed to calculate the polynomial expansion coefficients, where CCP-CM constructs the collocation points via full tensor product grids, and CCP-MCM employs Smolyak algorithm to reconstruct the sparse grid collocation points. By comparing results with traditional Monte Carlo simulation, a numerical example about a 3D sandwich structure is provided to verify the effectiveness of proposed methodology in practical engineering. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:在数学理论和工程应用中,具有不完整知识的不确定性传播问题,特别是当同时存在不同类型的认知不确定性时,都被认为是一个挑战性问题。通过使用区间变量和模糊变量来表征仅具有边界信息和隶属函数的混合不确定性,提出了一种新的热工系统的区间模糊响应双重分析方法。在提出的双阶段分析框架中,首先推导了区间变量的温度响应范围,然后通过降级策略和模糊性重构计算了响应区间对模糊变量的隶属度函数。为了避免重复的有限元模拟所造成的巨大计算负担,采用了勒让德多项式混沌展开作为温度响应的替代模型。提出了两种基于Clenshaw-Curtis点的配置方法来计算多项式展开系数,其中CCP-CM通过全张量积网格构造配置点,CCP-MCM采用Smolyak算法重构稀疏网格配置点。通过将结果与传统的蒙特卡洛模拟进行比较,提供了有关3D三明治结构的数值示例,以验证所提出的方法在实际工程中的有效性。 (C)2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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