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CST-based first order second moment method for probabilistic slope stability analysis

机译：基于CST的一阶二阶矩法用于概率边坡稳定性分析

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Correlated random variables are commonly involved in probabilistic slope stability analysis, such as reliability analysis of slopes with spatially variable soil properties. This paper proposes a simple Correlated Sampling Technique (CST) for generating samples of correlated random variables. The CST firstly produces correlated standard-normally distributed samples through linear combinations of independent standard-normally distributed samples. Correlated arbitrarily distributed samples can then be obtained by the Nataf transformation. The CST was combined with FOSM (named CST-based FOSM) for probabilistic slope stability analysis. The slope reliabilities of a single-layered cohesive soil slope and a high earth and rockfill dam were analyzed to illustrate the CST-based FOSM. These illustrative examples indicated that the CST-based FOSM can accurately estimate the slope reliability indices with considerably fewer simulations (especially in the case of low failure probability) compared with direct MCS, and the slope reliability was sensitive to the correlation of the strength parameters. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：相关随机变量通常参与概率性边坡稳定性分析，例如具有空间可变土壤属性的边坡的可靠性分析。本文提出了一种简单的相关采样技术（CST），用于生成相关随机变量的样本。 CST首先通过独立的标准正态分布样本的线性组合来生成相关的标准正态分布样本。然后可以通过Nataf变换获得相关的任意分布的样本。 CST与FOSM（基于CST的FOSM）相结合，用于概率边坡稳定性分析。分析了单层粘性土坡和高土石坝的边坡可靠度，以说明基于CST的FOSM。这些说明性示例表明，与直接MCS相比，基于CST的FOSM可以通过相当少的模拟（特别是在低失效概率的情况下）准确估计斜坡可靠性指标，并且斜坡可靠性对强度参数的相关性敏感。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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