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首页> 外文期刊>Computers，environment and urban systems >The integration of local government, residents, and insurance in coastal adaptation: An agent-based modeling approach
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The integration of local government, residents, and insurance in coastal adaptation: An agent-based modeling approach

机译：地方政府，居民和保险在沿海适应中的整合：基于代理的建模方法

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摘要

Previous evaluation of flood risk overlooks the behavior and capacity of private stakeholders, thus limiting the application of adaptation policies. This study presents an agent-based model, applied to Miami-Dade County, FL, as the case study, to explore the public and private interaction in coastal flood adaptation and mitigation. The decision making of individuals' adaptive behavior is simulated based on the prospected theory under households' risk perception, insurance policies, and the local flood mitigation. The NFIP and private insurance policy are simulated separately to reflect the flood insurance market. Our results show that households' risk mitigation behaviors are clustered in high-risk coastal areas, including Miami-Beach and the east coast of the County. The overall flood risk is still high in the southern part of the County. To better reflect the flooding risk and address the affordability issue, a voucher coupled house elevation program could improve the insurance take-up rates as well as reduce the overall flood risk in the area. Results also indicate that private insurance would slightly increase if the NFIP's insurance rates increase. Afterward, four adaptation scenarios in response to future sea level rises are examined by considering the voucher-based insurance program and the local adaptation actions. Compared with the high-risk reduction but low coverage mitigation plan, more extensive coverage of public adaptation would better improve the overall adaptation outcome of the County, which indicates the importance of public participation in local risk mitigation and urban governance.
机译：先前对洪水风险的评估忽略了私人利益相关者的行为和能力，从而限制了适应政策的应用。这项研究提出了一种基于主体的模型，该模型应用于案例研究的佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德县，以探索沿海洪水适应和减灾中的公共和私人互动。在家庭风险感知，保险政策和当地防洪减灾的基础上，基于预期理论模拟了个人适应行为的决策。分别模拟了NFIP和私人保险政策以反映洪水保险市场。我们的结果表明，家庭的风险缓解行为集中在高风险的沿海地区，包括迈阿密海滩和县东海岸。该县南部的总体洪灾风险仍然很高。为了更好地反映洪水风险并解决承受能力问题，有价证券耦合的房屋抬高计划可以提高保险购买率，并降低该地区的总体洪水风险。结果还表明，如果NFIP的保险费率提高，私人保险将略有增加。之后，通过考虑基于凭证的保险计划和当地的适应措施，研究了应对未来海平面上升的四种适应方案。与高风险降低但覆盖率较低的缓解计划相比，对公共适应的更广泛覆盖将更好地改善该县的总体适应结果，这表明公众参与地方风险缓解和城市治理的重要性。

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  • 来源
    《Computers，environment and urban systems》 |2019年第7期|69-79|共11页
  • 作者

    Han Yu; Peng Zhong-ren;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Florida, Int Ctr Adaptat & Design iAdapt, Sch Landscape Architecture & Planning, Coll Design Construct & Planning, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA;

    Univ Florida, Int Ctr Adaptat & Design iAdapt, Sch Landscape Architecture & Planning, Coll Design Construct & Planning, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA|Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, China Inst Urban Governance, Shanghai, Peoples R China|Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Ctr Intelligent Transportat Syst & Unmanned Aeria, State Key Lab Ocean Engn Sch Naval Architecture, Ocean Civil Engn, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Flood risk; Agent-based model; Flood insurance; Risk mitigation; Decision-making on adaptation;

    机译：洪水风险;基于Agent的模型;洪水保险;风险缓解;适应决策;

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