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首页> 外文期刊>Computers，environment and urban systems >Modelling the relationship between urban expansion processes and urban forest characteristics: An application to the Metropolitan District of Quito
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Modelling the relationship between urban expansion processes and urban forest characteristics: An application to the Metropolitan District of Quito

机译：建模城市扩建过程与城市森林特征的关系：基多大都市区的应用

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摘要

The rapid process of global urbanisation engenders changes in urban socio-ecological systems and in the landscape structure. However, the future processes of urban expansion in Latin American cities has been little studied even though the wellbeing of its citizens will depend on territorial management and on planning the provision of ecosystemic benefits and services. This research, considering different socio-ecological dimensions, proposed to determine the causes of potential urban expansion, analysing the dimensions and possible predictors that would explain the expansion of a high Andean city and its influence on peri-urban forest landscapes.To develop a model that integrates the complexity of the system, we used the following five dimensions: biophysics, land cover and management, infrastructure and services, socio-economics, and landscape metrics, and we opted for a binomial analysis through a spatial logistic regression model developed from 33 predictors.Considering the odd radio of the model, we observe that the independent increase in predictors, including building blocks, drinking water, sewerage, waste collection, average land size, the Interspersion and Juxtaposition Index (IJI) and Largest Patch Index (LPI), and the constant behaviour of the others predictors, would increase the probability of a potential urbanisation of the territory. Similarly, the independent increase in predictors, including the presence of protected areas, the presence of protected forests, land cover, unemployment, and the Shannon Diversity Index(SHDI), reduce the probability of the urbanisation process.Our results suggest that the territorial vulnerability from a potential urbanisation process is strongly related to an increase in infrastructure, services, and the average size of properties variables. Moreover, the landscape with the greatest potential for urbanisation presents an adequate intercalation of the different patches that compose it. However, the presence of variables such as protected areas and protective forests, in addition to monitoring indicators such as landscape diversity and mitigation strategies, could be considered to focus the analysis on the current dynamics of urbanisation processes in Latin America.
机译：全球城市化的快速进程参加了城市社会生态系统和景观结构的变化。但是，拉丁美洲城市的未来城市扩张进程甚至几乎没有研究过，尽管其公民的福祉将取决于领土管理和规划管理生态系统福利和服务，但即使也在很少研究。考虑到不同的社会生态维度，提出了确定潜在城市扩张的原因，分析了解释了高安安安利亚城市的尺寸和可能的预测因子及其对围城市森林景观的影响。发展模型这集成了系统的复杂性，我们使用了以下五个维度：生物物理学，土地覆盖和管理，基础设施和服务，社会经济和景观度量，我们通过33的空间逻辑回归模型选择了二项式分析预测因子。考虑模型的奇怪收音机，观察到预测因子的独立增加，包括构建块，饮用水，污水，废物收集，平均土地大小，间隙和并置指数（IJI）和最大的补丁指数（LPI）以及其他人预测因子的不断行为将增加潜在城市化的概率。同样，预测因子的独立增加，包括保护区的存在，受保护的森林，土地覆盖，失业和香农分离指数（Shdi）的存在，降低了城市化进程的概率。我们的结果表明领土漏洞从潜在的城市化进程与基础设施，服务和属性变量的平均大小的增加有关。此外，具有最大的城市化潜力的景观介绍了构成它的不同斑块的充分插入。然而，除了监测景观多样性和缓解策略之类的监测指标之外，还可以考虑在监测景观多样性和缓解策略等指标之外存在变量，例如保护森林，以重点分析拉丁美洲城市化进程的当前动态。

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  • 来源
    《Computers，environment and urban systems》 |2020年第1期|101420.1-101420.14|共14页
  • 作者

    Bonilla-Bedoya Santiago; Mora Argenis; Vaca Angelica; Estrella Anabel; Angel Herrera Miguel;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Tecnol Indoamer Res Ctr Terr & Sustainable Habitat Quito 170301 Ecuador|Univ Tecnol Indoamer Ingn Biodiversidad & Recursos Genet Fac Ciencias Medio Ambiente Quito 170301 Ecuador|Univ Tecnol Indoamer Fac Arquitectura Artes & Diseno Quito 170301 Ecuador;

    EARTH Univ Las Mercedes De Guacimo Limon Costa Rica;

    Univ Tecnol Indoamer Res Ctr Terr & Sustainable Habitat Quito 170301 Ecuador;

    Univ Cordoba Dept Agr Econ ETSIAM Campus Excelencia Int Agroalimentario CeiA3 Cordoba Spain;

    Univ Cordoba Dept Forest Engn ETSIAM Campus Excelencia Int Agroalimentario CeiA3 Cordoba Spain;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Urban sprawl; Urban-drivers; Forest landscape; Geo-statistical;

    机译：城市蔓延;城市司机;森林景观;地理统计;

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