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The local geography of transnational terrorism

机译：跨国恐怖主义的当地地理

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摘要

Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.
机译：为什么某些地方对跨国恐怖主义的目标比其他地方更具吸引力的目标？关于局部级别条件和属性的显着较少，这些属性正常地确定有针对性国家内发生的跨国恐怖袭击事件。迄今为止，定量恐怖主义研究确定了恐怖主义，忽视可能的地方因素的国家或地区级相关性。在这项研究中，我们分发了增加恐怖袭击可能性的五个地方因素：目标的安全性，可访问性，象征主义，物质危害和排斥。利用各种估算策略，包括多级，负二项式和倾向得分匹配模型，我们向新的次全国地理编码跨国恐怖主义数据转到各种子国家措施，从理论上可能会增加恐怖袭击的可能性。结果表明，虽然国家和地区级别因素，但包括民事暴力的众多众多情况，包括在民族的经济活动，国家经济活动和城市地区的障碍，如果不是更多，重要的话。结果有助于证实采用跨国恐怖主义研究中采用亚国家分析水平的分析效益。

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