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UNITED KINGDOM

机译：英国

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Consumer Demand Eases Amid tightening credit conditions, evidence of slowing retail sales and further weakness in the property market, our panel has downgraded its 2008 GDP growth forecast this month. A moderation in activity has long been expected, but it appears that the slowdown may be more acute than previously anticipated. The principal concern is household consumption, which makes up over 60% of GDP. Supported by a booming housing market, consumer spending underpinned the economy's 3.1% expansion last year. However, with the impact of the global credit crisis beginning to be felt, GDP growth eased slightly in the fourth quarter to 2.9% (y-o-y), its slowest rate of increase for a year-and-a-half. Further slowing is expected with consumer belt-tightening predicted to rein in household consumption, despite retailers aggressively cutting prices. Indeed, retail sales increased by just 0.4% q-o-q in Q4, compared with gains of 1.4% in both Q2 and Q3. With mortgage approvals at their lowest level since July 1995 and momentum in house prices decidedly on the downside, some forecasters expect a more dramatic slowdown in consumption growth this year than the current consensus forecast of 1.7% suggests. Investment is also projected to slow noticeably this year, with the consensus predicting a 2.3% increase, compared with over 6% in 2007.
机译：消费者需求缓解由于信贷条件趋紧，零售销售放缓以及房地产市场进一步疲软的迹象，我们的小组本月下调了2008年GDP增​​长预期。长期以来人们一直预期活动会有所放缓，但这种放缓似乎比以前预期的更为严重。主要关注的是家庭消费，其占GDP的60％以上。在繁荣的住房市场的支持下，消费者支出支撑了去年经济增长3.1％。但是，随着人们开始感受到全球信贷危机的影响，第四季度GDP增长略有放缓，至2.9％（同比），这是一年半以来的最低增速。尽管零售商积极降价，但预计随着消费者紧缩政策的收紧，预计将进一步放缓家庭消费。确实，第四季度零售额环比仅增长0.4％，而第二季度和第三季度均增长1.4％。由于抵押贷款批准量处于1995年7月以来的最低水平，并且房价势头明显下降，一些预测人士预计，今年的消费增长将比目前的1.7％预期更为显着。预计今年的投资也将显着放缓，共识预测为增长2.3％，而2007年则超过6％。

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