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Conservation Planning when Costs Are Uncertain

机译：成本不确定时的保护规划

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Abstract: Spatially explicit information on the financial costs of conservation actions can improve the ability of conservation planning to achieve ecological and economic objectives, but the magnitude of this improvement may depend on the accuracy of the cost estimates. Data on costs of conservation actions are inherently uncertain. For example, the cost of purchasing a property for addition to a protected-area network depends on the individual landholder's preferences, values, and aspirations, all of which vary in space and time, and the effect of this uncertainty on the conservation priority of a site is relatively untested. We investigated the sensitivity of the conservation priority of sites to uncertainty in cost estimates. We explored scenarios for expanding (four-fold) the protected-area network in Queensland, Australia to represent a range of vegetation types, species, and abiotic environments, while minimizing the cost of purchasing new properties. We estimated property costs for 17, 790 10 × 10 km sites with data on unimproved land values. We systematically changed property costs and noted how these changes affected conservation priority of a site. The sensitivity of the priority of a site to changes in cost data was largely dependent on a site's importance for meeting conservation targets. Sites that were essential or unimportant for meeting targets maintained high or low priorities, respectively, regardless of cost estimates. Sites of intermediate conservation priority were sensitive to property costs and represented the best option for efficiency gains, especially if they could be purchased at a lower price than anticipated. Thus, uncertainty in cost estimates did not impede the use of cost data in conservation planning, and information on the sensitivity of the conservation priority of a site to estimates of the price of land can be used to inform strategic conservation planning before the actual price of the land is known.
机译：摘要：关于保护行动的财务成本的空间明确信息可以提高保护规划实现生态和经济目标的能力，但这种改善的程度可能取决于成本估算的准确性。关于保护行动成本的数据本质上是不确定的。例如，购买财产以添加到保护区网络中的成本取决于各个土地所有者的偏好，价值和愿望，所有这些偏好，价值和愿望在时空上都各不相同，以及这种不确定性对保护区优先保护的影响。网站相对未经测试。我们调查了站点保护优先级对成本估算不确定性的敏感性。我们探索了扩展（四倍）澳大利亚昆士兰州保护区网络的方案，以代表一系列植被类型，物种和非生物环境，同时最大程度降低购买新财产的成本。我们使用未改善的土地价值数据估算了17 790个10×10 km场地的财产成本。我们系统地更改了物业成本，并注意到这些更改如何影响站点的保护优先级。站点优先级对成本数据变化的敏感性在很大程度上取决于站点对于实现保护目标的重要性。对于实现目标而言至关重要或不重要的站点，无论成本估算如何，都分别保持高优先级或低优先级。处于中等优先保护地位的地点对财产成本敏感，是提高效率的最佳选择，尤其是如果可以以比预期更低的价格购买的地点。因此，成本估算的不确定性并不妨碍在保护规划中使用成本数据，并且有关场地保护优先级对土地价格估计的敏感性的信息可以用于在土地的实际价格之前告知战略保护规划。这片土地是众所周知的。

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