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Win-win pricing method for BOT projects using a simulation-based evolutionary optimization

机译：基于模拟的进化优化的BOT项目双赢定价方法

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摘要

Several failures have been reported in maintaining the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects viability through their life cycle. BOT contracts are one of the popular tools to respond to fund deficiencies in infrastructure projects, thus it is crucial to determine optimum concession terms for them. In previous research, the value of social benefits has mostly been neglected in the decision-making process, which results in unfair distribution of benefits between the government and the concessionaire. Therefore, a pricing framework based on a Simulation Multi-Objective Optimization (SMOO) method is developed in this research which includes the value of social benefits as well as the effects of uncertainties in BOT projects. The application of the model to a real-world project confirms that it presents a win-win solution in which the benefits of the two contracting parties are simultaneously maximized compared to the results obtained by using conventional methods. The results confirm the contribution of this research to reach a consensus on concession price and to keep the project viability as a result of its ability to cope with the high volatilities through simulation techniques. Furthermore, it can help the decisionmakers to either seek a balance between both sides' interests or determine the concession price based on their preferential strategies.
机译：据报告，在整个生命周期中保持建造，运营，转让（BOT）项目可行性的失败有几处。 BOT合同是应对基础设施项目资金不足的常用工具之一，因此，为他们确定最佳特许条件至关重要。在先前的研究中，社会福利的价值在决策过程中大多被忽略，这导致政府与特许公司之间的利益分配不公平。因此，本研究开发了一种基于模拟多目标优化（SMOO）方法的定价框架，其中包括社会效益的价值以及BOT项目中不确定因素的影响。该模型在实际项目中的应用证实了它提供了一种双赢的解决方案，与使用传统方法获得的结果相比，该解决方案使两个缔约方的利益同时最大化。结果证实了这项研究对特许权价格达成共识并通过模拟技术应对高波动性的能力保持了项目可行性的贡献。此外，它可以帮助决策者在双方利益之间寻求平衡或根据他们的优惠策略确定优惠价格。

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