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Dynamic demand risk assessment for toll road projects

机译：收费公路项目的动态需求风险评估

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摘要

To bridge the gap between supply of and increasing demand for roads, public-private partnership (PPP) concession contracts in which the investment cost is recovered via payments from the end users have been established. Although this mechanism has been seen as an efficient way for road projects to be completed on time and within budget, the demand risk faced during the operation stage has considerably limited this efficiency. Demand depends on a range of interrelated and dynamic factors such as the demographic and economic conditions. In addition, uncertainty is an inherent aspect of most demand-underlying factors which always make demand estimation inaccurate. However, this uncertainty is largely ignored by modellers where a single demand estimate is often used when evaluating the facility. The aim is to develop a system dynamics model to assess demand risk in road projects. The model captures the factors affecting demand and their relationships and simulates their change over time. By employing Monte Carlo simulation, the model assesses the likelihood and potential effect of an event on the outcome and provides a full picture of the various effects of potential risk. The model can help public, private, and financial stakeholders of PPP facilities make more informed decisions.
机译：为了弥合道路供求之间的差距，已经建立了公私合作伙伴关系（PPP）特许合同，其中通过最终用户的付款收回投资成本。尽管这种机制被认为是在预算范围内按时完成道路工程的一种有效方法，但是在运营阶段所面临的需求风险却大大限制了这种效率。需求取决于一系列相互关联的动态因素，例如人口和经济状况。此外，不确定性是大多数需求背后因素的固有方面，这些因素总是使需求估算不准确。但是，建模人员在很大程度上忽略了这种不确定性，在评估设施时，经常会使用单个需求估算。目的是开发一种系统动力学模型来评估道路项目中的需求风险。该模型捕获影响需求及其关系的因素，并模拟其随时间的变化。通过采用蒙特卡洛模拟，该模型可以评估事件对结果的可能性和潜在影响，并提供潜在风险的各种影响的全貌。该模型可以帮助PPP设施的公共，私人和财务利益相关者做出更明智的决策。

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