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Real estate bubbles in China: a tale of two cities

机译：中国的房地产泡沫：两个城市的故事

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As housing markets have overheated recently in urban China, housing price bears substantial risk. The issue of housing price bubbles in these markets has become a popular and significant topic among consumers, policymakers and academia alike. In particular, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the most important markets for revealing the condition of the housing market in the Pearl River Delta, have attracted much attention in the period of prosperity. As such, an investigation into the bubble issue in these two cities is conducted by using an improved model, the time-varying risk model. The empirical work reveals that explosive bubbles did periodically (2003 Ql to 2006 Q2 and 2009 Q2 to 2010 Ql) have an impact on the two markets. For the rest of the period, housing markets in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are found to be significantly influenced by macro adjustments and various economic events. The implication of the research provides a reference for policymaking in addressing the issue of softening in China's real estate market.
机译：由于最近中国城市的住房市场过热，房价承受着巨大的风险。这些市场中的房价泡沫问题已经成为消费者，政策制定者和学术界的热门话题。特别是，广州和深圳作为揭示珠江三角洲住房市场状况的最重要市场，在繁荣时期引起了很多关注。因此，我们使用改进的模型（时变风险模型）对这两个城市的泡沫问题进行了调查。实证工作表明，爆炸性泡沫周期性地（2003年第一季度至2006年第二季度，以及2009年第二季度至2010年第一季度）确实对这两个市场产生了影响。在剩下的时间里，发现广州和深圳的住房市场受到宏观调控和各种经济事件的重大影响。该研究的意义为解决中国房地产市场疲软问题的政策制定提供了参考。

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