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Predicting the probability of winning sealed bid auctions: the effects of outliers on bidding models

机译：预测赢得密封竞标的可能性：异常值对竞标模型的影响

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摘要

This paper is concerned with the effect of outliers on predictions of the probability of tendering the lowest bid in sealed bid auctions. Four of the leading models are tested relative to the equal probability model by an empirical analysis of three large samples of real construction contract bidding data via all-in (in-sample), one-out and one-on (out-of-sample) frames. Outliers are removed in a sequence of cut-off values proportional to the standard deviation of bids for each auction. A form of logscore is used to measure the ability to predict the probability of each bidder being the lowest. The results show that, although statistically significant in some conditions, all the models produce rather poor predictions in both one-out and one-on mode, with the effects of outliers being generally small.
机译：本文关注离群值对密封投标拍卖中最低投标价的概率预测的影响。通过对三个实际施工合同招标数据的大样本进行实证分析，通过全入（样本内），一次性和一次性（样本外）对四个领先模型进行了相对于均等概率模型的测试）帧。离群值按与每个拍卖的出价标准差成比例的截止值序列除去。使用对数得分形式来衡量预测每个竞标者的概率最低的能力。结果表明，尽管在某些情况下统计意义显着，但是所有模型在单向和一对一模式下均产生相当差的预测，离群值的影响通常很小。

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