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Is there a natural rate of crime in India?

机译：印度的犯罪率自然很高吗？

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摘要

This paper examines the natural rate of crime hypothesis in the Indian context. We use annual time series data on aggregate as well as specific crime categories for the period 1953-2012. Various types of unit root tests - conventional as well as unit root test with endogenously determined structural breaks - are used to identify whether the respective crime rates are stationary. The empirical findings suggest that majority of the crime series are stationary with structural breaks implying the existence of a natural rate of crime in India in the long run. Specifically, total crimes along with individual crime types such as burglary, counterfeiting, criminal breach of trust, dacoity and theft are stationary with two structural breaks, whereas kidnapping & abduction and cheating are stationary with one break. Our findings are consistent with the literature which argues that crimes with pecuniary motives are more likely to have natural rates.
机译：本文研究了印度背景下的自然犯罪率假说。我们使用1953-2012年期间的年度和特定犯罪类别的时间序列数据。各种类型的单位根检验-常规的以及具有内生确定的结构破坏的单位根检验-用于识别各个犯罪率是否稳定。实证结果表明，大多数犯罪系列都是固定不变的，结构性断裂表明，从长远来看，印度存在自然犯罪率。具体而言，犯罪总数，盗窃，伪造，破坏信任，犯罪和偷窃等个别犯罪类型在两个结构性中断之间是固定的，而绑架和绑架和欺诈行为在一个结构上是固定的。我们的发现与文献一致，该文献认为具有金钱动机的犯罪更有可能具有自然犯罪率。

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