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Exploring the temporal travel choices: a joint modelling of how long to travel and when

机译：探索时间旅行选择：联合建模旅行多长时间

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Many tourism travel decisions are interrelated. From modelling viewpoint incorporating these interrelations is important for understanding the consequences of exogenous shocks, as well as the intended and unintended consequences of policy. This paper addresses two tourist choices in the temporal dimension that were previously only handled as if they were mutually exclusive. The paper adopts a discrete-continuous model framework to simulate tourists' behaviours in selecting travel seasons (choice model) and associated trip duration (accelerated failure time model) and estimates the correlation between these two tourism decisions conditional on the covariates. The empirical analysis is based on Australian domestic tourism data and reveal the factors influencing both decisions as well as those that influence only one or the other. The model results, which is tested with data from select years between 1999-2018, including years of significant exogenous shocks, show mixed evidence of stability and changes in the parameters. Building on this evidence, the paper concludes with underlying temporal choice behaviours of tourists that may be of relevance during- and post-COVID19 environment.
机译：许多旅游旅行决定是相互关联的。从建模观点结合这些相互关系对于了解外源冲击的后果以及政策的预期和意外后果非常重要。本文涉及以前只处理的时间维度中的两个旅游选择，好像它们相互排斥一样。本文采用离散 - 连续的模型框架来模拟游客在选择旅行季节（选择模型）和相关行程持续时间（加速故障时间模型）中的行为，并估计这两个旅游决策的相关性在协变量中。实证分析基于澳大利亚国内旅游数据，并揭示了影响两项决策的因素以及影响一个或另一个的因素。模型结果，从1999 - 2018年之间的选择年份测试，包括多年的显着外源冲击，显示出稳定性的混合证据和参数的变化。根据这一证据，本文得出结论，游客的潜在的时间选择行为可能是相关的，在科科德后19例环境中可能具有相关性。

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