• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Decision Sciences >Judgmental Adjustments Of Previously Adjusted Forecasts
【24h】

Judgmental Adjustments Of Previously Adjusted Forecasts

机译：先前调整的预测的判断调整

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
       
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Forecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision-making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common for forecast users to receive predictions that have previously been adjusted by providers or other users of forecasts. Current work investigates some of the factors that may influence the size and propensity of further adjustments on already-adjusted forecasts. Two studies are reported that focus on the potential effects of adjustment framing (Study 1) and the availability of explanations and/or original forecasts alongside the adjusted forecasts (Study 2). Study 1 provides evidence that the interval forecasts that are labeled as "adjusted" are modified less than the so-called "original/unadjusted" predictions. Study 2 suggests that the provision of original forecasts and the presence of explanations accompanying the adjusted forecasts serve as significant factors shaping the size and propensity of further modifications. Findings of both studies highlight the importance of forecasting format and user perceptions with critical organizational repercussions.
机译：预测是信息系统的重要组成部分。它们为知识共享提供了一种手段，因此具有重大的决策影响力。在许多组织中，对于预测用户而言，接收以前由预测的提供者或其他用户调整过的预测是很普遍的。当前的工作调查了一些可能影响已经调整的预测的进一步调整的规模和倾向的因素。据报道，有两项研究侧重于调整框架的潜在影响（研究1）以及解释和/或原始预测以及调整后的预测的可用性（研究2）。研究1提供的证据表明，标记为“已调整”的区间预测的修改程度小于所谓的“原始/未调整”的预测。研究2表明，原始预测的提供以及调整后的预测随附的解释是影响进一步修改的规模和倾向的重要因素。两项研究的结果都突出了预测格式和用户认知与重要组织影响的重要性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号