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Dynamic immigration control improving inverse old-age dependency ratio in a pay-as-you-go pension system

机译:动态移民控制改善了现收现付养老金系统中逆向老年抚养比

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摘要

The sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension systems is a major concern in most European countries. Considering the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the class of actives to pensioners) as a sustainability index, based on a classical demographic model, a new optimal control model is proposed where the sustainability index grows along a prescribed trajectory, minimizing the annual immigration flow ovtr a given time horizon. In addition to the admission of young immigrants, immigrant females, by having higher birth rates than the residents, can substantially improve the sustainability index. For the efficiency of the immigration policy, the admission of immigrants is also differentiated by age. Within the limits of our model, the social cost of sustainability in terms of immigration can be estimated on beforehand. Therefore, the simulation analysis of our model may give a sound foundation to the corresponding decision of policy makers.
机译:现收现付养老金制度的可持续性是大多数欧洲国家的主要关注点。考虑到逆向老年抚养比(活性物质类别与养老金领取者的比例)作为可持续性指标,基于经典的人口模型,提出了一种新的最优控制模型,其中可持续性指标沿着规定的轨迹增长,从而将给定时间范围内的年度移民流量。除了接纳年轻移民外,女性移民的出生率高于居民,可以大大提高可持续性指数。为了提高移民政策的效率,移民的年龄也有所不同。在我们模型的范围内,就移民而言,可持续性的社会成本可以预先估算。因此,我们模型的仿真分析可以为决策者的相应决策打下良好的基础。

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