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Correlation analysis on China's carbon emissions and its specific industrial structure- Based on grey correlation analysis model

机译：中国碳排放量与特定产业结构的相关性分析-基于灰色关联分析模型

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Industrial structure adjustment and the low carbon economy development are connected with each other and there exists intrinsic unification between the two of them. To discuss the issue of carbon emissions intensity based on the specific industrial structure is conducive to correctly judge and grasp the industry factors that result in the change of carbon emissions and effectively formulate industrial development policies for controlling carbon emissions. This paper based on the analysis of China's carbon emissions change trend, chose 28 major provincial data of carbon emissions, proportion of three industries, per unit of GDP carbon emissions during 2004????2011, studied correlation between China's carbon intensity, primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry, using gray correlation analysis method. And the following conclusions are obtained: The second industry is the main factor influencing the regional carbon intensity. There are 16 areas around the country that have the biggest correlation between secondary industry and carbon intensity. However, the second industry is not the only factor that affects regional carbon emissions increase. Tertiary industry does not have obvious effect on the reduce of regional carbon emissions. There are 11 areas around the country whose influence of the third industry on carbon emissions exceeds that of second industry, which needs to be brought to the forefront. The first industry has the minimal impact on carbon emissions intensity. There are only 4 areas around the country whose first industry's impact on carbon emissions intensity is not the minimal. In summary, there is no single, precise evolution law between industrial structure change and carbon emissions in different provinces domains in China. On this basis, this paper discusses carbon reduction strategy of industrial structure adjustment of our country in the future, so as to effectively control influence of the industrial development on carbon intensity.
机译：产业结构调整与低碳经济发展是相互联系的，两者之间存在内在的统一。根据具体的产业结构来讨论碳排放强度问题，有利于正确判断和把握导致碳排放量变化的行业因素，有效地制定了控制碳排放的产业发展政策。本文在分析中国碳排放量变化趋势的基础上，选择了2004年至2011年省级碳排放量的28个主要数据，三个行业的比重，单位GDP碳排放量，研究了中国碳强度与第一产业之间的相关性。 ，第二产业和第三产业，则采用灰色关联分析法。得出以下结论：第二产业是影响区域碳强度的主要因素。全国有16个地区的第二产业与碳强度之间的相关性最大。但是，第二产业并不是影响区域碳排放量增加的唯一因素。第三产业对减少区域碳排放没有明显的影响。全国有11个地区的第三产业对碳排放的影响超过第二产业，这需要走在前列。第一产业对碳排放强度的影响最小。全国只有4个地区的第一产业对碳排放强度的影响并非最小。综上所述，在中国不同省域的产业结构变化与碳排放之间没有统一，精确的演变规律。在此基础上，本文探讨了未来我国产业结构调整的减碳策略，以有效控制产业发展对碳强度的影响。

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