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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Urology >Testicular Cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and predictions until 2030
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Testicular Cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and predictions until 2030

机译：巴西睾丸癌死亡率：到2030年的趋势和预测

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摘要

Despite the fact that testicular cancer presents good prognosis, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally. In Brazil, mortality trends and estimates have not been fully assessed. The objective of the study presented herein is to analyze the mortality trends for testicular cancer in Brazil in the period 2001–2015 and calculate mortality predictions for the period 2016–2030. This is a population-based ecological study that utilized information of the Mortality Information System, on testicular cancer-related deaths in Brazil. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions. The mortality rate for men, standardized to the world population, varied between 0.36/100,000 for the year 2001, to 0.41/100,000 for the year 2015. There was an increasing trend for Brazil (APC?=?1.3% CI95% 0.6; 2.0) and the Southeast region (APC?=?1.5% CI95%0.2; 2.7). When analyzing Brazilian data for the period 2016–2030, predictions indicate 2888 deaths due to testicular cancer, which corresponds to a 26.6% change when compared to the 2011–2015 period. This change is mostly explained by an increase in the risk of death (14.2%) when compared with modifications in the demographic structure (12.4%). Testicular cancer mortality in Brazil presents increasing trends, and until 2030 these rates continue to increase.
机译：尽管睾丸癌的预后良好，但国际上死亡率的差异却很大。在巴西，死亡率趋势和估计数尚未得到充分评估。本文介绍的研究目的是分析2001-2015年巴西睾丸癌的死亡率趋势，并计算2016-2030年的死亡率预测。这是一项基于人群的生态研究，利用了死亡率信息系统的信息来研究巴西睾丸癌相关的死亡。通过Joinpoint回归分析死亡率趋势，并使用Nordpred进行预测计算。按世界人口标准化的男性死亡率在2001年的0.36 / 100,000至2015年的0.41 / 100,000之间。巴西呈上升趋势（APC？=？1.3％CI95％0.6; 2.0 ）和东南地区（APC？=？1.5％CI95％0.2; 2.7）。在分析巴西2016-2030年期间的数据时，预测表明有2888人死于睾丸癌，与2011-2015年期间相比，变化了26.6％。与人口结构变化（12.4％）相比，死亡的风险增加（14.2％）可以解释这一变化。巴西的睾丸癌死亡率呈上升趋势，直到2030年，这些比率持续上升。

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