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首页> 外文期刊>British Journal of Environment and Climate Change >Effects of Climate Change, Poverty and Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Trade Performance in Nigeria
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Effects of Climate Change, Poverty and Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Trade Performance in Nigeria

机译：气候变化，贫困和宏观经济政策对尼日利亚农业贸易表现的影响

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Aims: This study ascertained the joint influences of climate factors, poverty and macroeconomic environment on agricultural export performance in Nigeria. Study Design: The study is a survey based on time series data.Place and Duration of Study: Secondary data covering 32 years (1978-2009) obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Annual Report and Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics were used for the survey. Methodology: The sample size was 32 (years) based on data availability. Data analysis was conducted using bound testing approach of co-integration advanced by Pesaran et al. [25] otherwise known as Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).model. Test for unit roots in the series were done at their levels and first differences using Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips Perron tests before applying the ARDL model.Results: Preliminary results from the ARDL model indicated that climate variability (variations in mean annual rainfall), gross fixed capital formation (proxy for wealth accumulated in the economy) and macroeconomic variables including interest rate and volume of domestic credit advanced to the private sector significantly influenced the performance level of agricultural export. However, on the long-run, macroeconomic factors (interest rate and credit to the private sector) and gross fixed capital of the economy (with p values of 0.01, 0.07 and 0.03 respectively were the most significant determinants of agricultural export trade performance in the country within the review period. On the short run, it was confirmed that gross fixed capital formation (wealth) Granger caused the level of agricultural export performance while agricultural export performance level Granger caused volume of domestic credit advanced to the private sector of the economy both with p values of 0.07. Conclusion: It was recommended that macroeconomic policies aimed at increasing farm credit and reduction of interest rate should be strengthened; while programmes to build resilience to climate variability such as irrigation facilities and capacity building in climate change adaptation should be put in place by the Nigerian government.
机译：目的：本研究确定了气候因素，贫困和宏观经济环境对尼日利亚农业出口表现的共同影响。研究设计：该研究是基于时间序列数据的调查。研究的地点和时间：从尼日利亚中央银行的年度报告，统计公报和国家统计局获得的涵盖32年（1978-2009年）的辅助数据用于研究。调查。方法：根据数据可用性，样本规模为32（年）。数据分析是使用Pesaran等人提出的协同测试的绑定测试方法进行的。 [25]也称为自回归分布式滞后（ARDL）.model。在应用ARDL模型之前，使用Augmented Dickey Fuller和Philips Perron检验对系列中的单位根进行了测试，并进行了初次差异的研究。结果：ARDL模型的初步结果表明气候变异性（平均年降雨量变化），总湿度固定资本形成（经济中积累的财富的代理人）和包括利率和向私营部门提供的国内信贷量在内的宏观经济变量极大地影响了农产品出口的绩效水平。然而，从长远来看，宏观经济因素（利率和对私营部门的信贷）和经济的固定资本总额（p值分别为0.01、0.07和0.03）是决定农产品出口贸易绩效的最重要因素。在短期内，可以肯定的是，固定资本形成总额（财富）格兰杰导致了农业出口绩效水平，而农产品出口绩效水平由格兰杰引起了国内信贷向发达经济体的发展p值为0.07。结论：建议加强旨在增加农业信贷和降低利率的宏观经济政策;同时应制定旨在增强对气候变化的抵御能力的计划，例如灌溉设施和适应气候变化的能力建设由尼日利亚政府实施。

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