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Modelling the adoption of automatic milking systems in Noord-Holland

机译：为Noord-Holland采用自动挤奶系统建模

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摘要

Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the business and industry development process in agriculture. One of the most relevant innovations in dairy farms is the robotisation of the milking process through the adoption of Automatic Milking Systems (AMS). The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of selected Common Agricultural Policy measures on the adoption of AMS in dairy farms. The model developed is a dynamic farm-household model that is able to simulate the adoption of AMS taking into account the allocation of productive factors between on-farm and off-farm activities. The model simulates the decision to replace a traditional milking system with AMS using a Real Options approach that allows farmers to choose the optimal timing of investments. Results show that the adoption of AMS, and the timing of such a decision, is strongly affected by policy uncertainty and market conditions. The effect of this uncertainty is to postpone the decision to adopt the new technology until farmers have gathered enough information to reduce the negative effects of the technological lock-in. AMS adoption results in an increase in farm size and herd size due to the reduction in the labour required for milking operations.
机译：创新和采用新技术是农业工商业发展过程中的两个主要要素。奶牛场中最相关的创新之一是通过采用自动挤奶系统（AMS）对挤奶过程进行自动化。本文的目的是评估选定的通用农业政策措施对奶牛场采用AMS的影响。开发的模型是一个动态的农户模型，该模型能够模拟AMS的采用，并考虑到农场内和农场外活动之间生产要素的分配。该模型使用“实物期权”方法模拟了用AMS替代传统挤奶系统的决策，该方法允许农民选择最佳投资时机。结果表明，AMS的采用以及决策的时机受到政策不确定性和市场状况的强烈影响。这种不确定性的影响是推迟采用新技术的决定，直到农民收集到足够的信息以减少技术锁定的负面影响为止。由于减少挤奶操作所需的劳动力，采用AMS会导致农场规模和畜群规模增加。

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