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Food commodity price volatility and food insecurity

机译：粮食商品价格波动和粮食不安全

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The paper first reviews several issues relevant to global food commodity market volatility as it pertains to food security, and food importing developing countries, and then discusses international and national policies and measures to prevent or manage this volatility and related risks. It is shown that market volatility relates to unpredictability of market fundamentals, and price spikes occur when unpredictability increases excessively. The food security risks faced by food import developing countries are discussed and it is highlighted that the major risks involve not only large and unpredictable price variations but also trade finance as well as import contract enforcement. The problem of identifying a price spike is analyzed and it is seen that, despite difficulties in commodity modeling, there are empirical techniques that allow the assessment of the probabilities of price spikes, and could facilitate the triggering of responses. Suggestions are made concerning institutions and policies to assist developing countries better cope with the risks of commodity market volatility.
机译：本文首先回顾了与全球粮食商品市场波动相关的若干问题，涉及粮食安全和粮食进口发展中国家，然后讨论了预防和管理这种波动及相关风险的国际和国家政策和措施。结果表明，市场波动与市场基本面的不可预测性有关，当不可预测性过度增加时，就会出现价格飙升。讨论了粮食进口发展中国家面临的粮食安全风险，并着重指出，主要风险不仅涉及巨大且不可预测的价格波动，还涉及贸易融资以及进口合同的执行。分析了确定价格峰值的问题，可以看出，尽管商品建模存在困难，但是有一些经验技术可以评估价格峰值的可能性，并且可以促进响应的触发。提出了有关机构和政策的建议，以协助发展中国家更好地应对商品市场波动的风险。

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