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Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

机译：经济跨部门一致的气候变化影响情景分析：方法和在奥地利的应用

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Abstract Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues). In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (bio)physical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords climate impact ; local impact ; economic evaluation ; adaptation prs.rt("abs_end").
机译：摘要气候变化在国家和地方层面引发了多种影响，进而对整个经济产生了各种影响（例如对福利，就业或税收）。在回应中，社会需要确定应对这些影响中的哪些影响以及在每种适应措施上花费的资源份额。实现这一目标的前提是进行经济影响分析，该分析必须在各个部门之间保持一致，并承认部门间和整个经济的反馈效果。为此，传统的综合评估模型（IAM）通常在过于汇总的水平上运行，而自下而上的影响模型通常并不完全全面，仅关注于一部分对气候敏感的部门和/或一部分对气候变化的影响链。因此，我们在这里开发一种方法，该方法在11个（生物）物理影响评估模型和统一的多部门可计算一般均衡模型的耦合框架中应用气候和社会经济情景分析，协调的经济成本计算以及部门显式带宽分析。在将这种方法应用到奥地利的高山国家时，我们发现宏观经济反馈可以将部门性气候损害放大四倍，或者到本世纪中叶气候变化的成本明显超过了收益，净成本比当前损失高了两倍至四倍。成本水平。由此产生的具体影响信息（根据气候和经济驱动因素而有所区别）可以支持针对特定部门的适应以及适应能力建设。关键词气候影响;局部影响;经济评价;改编prs.rt（“ abs_end”）。

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