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Correlates of terror: Trends in types of terrorist groups and fatalities inflicted

机译：恐怖的关联：恐怖团体的类型趋势和造成的死亡人数

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A large body of recent work seeking to explain the strategies and causes of terrorism exists, with hypotheses ranging from frustration-aggression theories to strategic choice to psychological dysfunction or a number of other factors. Remarkably few studies examine the actual sources of terrorism, however. Despite the existence of some large databases that categorize terrorist incidents, such as the MIPT (Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism) Dataset, few published works analyze the correlation between terrorism and types of movements (nationalist, religious, anarchist, Marxist, environmentalist, etc.) and the number or scale of terrorist attacks.This research provides a simple, clear, evidence-based and relative measure of which kinds of groups resort to terrorism. Although databases such as that of MIPT suffer from a large number of terrorist incidents carried out by unknown perpetrators, as well as classification problems (groups can typically be both religious and nationalist, for instance), the evidence examined here indicates that nationalist groups and Islamist movements, in that order, were the most common kinds of non-state actors that resorted to terrorism between 1998 and 2007. Islamist groups do, however, appear responsible for more fatalities than any other kind of terrorist during this period. We conclude by offering tentative applications of these correlations to some of the most prevalent theoretical explanations for terrorism. We do this in only a preliminary sense, in order to see how a better notion of the actual ‘correlates of terrorism” might affect thinking and policymaking on the issue.
机译：目前存在大量试图解释恐怖主义的策略和原因的工作，其假设范围从挫折攻击理论，战略选择到心理功能障碍或许多其他因素。但是，很少有研究检查恐怖主义的真正根源。尽管存在一些将恐怖主义事件分类的大型数据库，例如MIPT（预防恐怖主义纪念研究所）数据集，但很少有发表的著作来分析恐怖主义与运动类型之间的相关性（民族主义，宗教，无政府主义者，马克思主义者，环境保护主义者，等等）以及恐怖袭击的数量或规模。这项研究提供了一种简单，清晰，基于证据的相对度量，用以衡量哪些群体诉诸恐怖主义。尽管像MIPT这样的数据库遭受着由不明肇事者进行的大量恐怖事件以及分类问题（例如，群体通常既可以是宗教主义者，也可以是民族主义者），但是这里检查的证据表明民族主义者和伊斯兰主义者按照这种顺序，运动是在1998年至2007年间诉诸恐怖主义的最常见的非国家行为者。然而，在此期间，伊斯兰集团的死亡人数似乎比任何其他种类的恐怖分子都要多。最后，我们将这些相关性的尝试性应用提供给一些最普遍的恐怖主义理论解释。我们仅在初步意义上进行此操作，以便了解对实际“恐怖主义相关因素”的更好理解可能会影响对此问题的思考和决策。

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