Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

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Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

机译：用周期回归分析国内生产总值的演变

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In this article, we will carry out an analysis on the regularity of the Gross Domestic Product of a country, in our case the United States. The method of analysis is based on a new method of analysis – the cyclic regressions based on the Fourier series of a function. Another point of view is that of considering instead the growth rate of GDP the speed of variation of this rate, computed as a numerical derivative. The obtained results show a cycle for this indicator for 71 years, the mean square error being 0.93%. The method described allows an prognosis on short-term trends in GDP.

机译：在本文中，我们将对一个国家（以美国为例）的国内生产总值的规律性进行分析。分析方法基于一种新的分析方法-基于函数傅立叶级数的循环回归。另一种观点是，应考虑将GDP的增长率作为数值导数计算的该增长率的变化速度。获得的结果表明该指标的周期为71年，均方差为0.93％。所描述的方法可以预测GDP的短期趋势。

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《Acta Universitatis Danubius. Oeconomica》 |2011年第4期|共页
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Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

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