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Verification of precipitation forecasts by the DWD limited area model LME over Cyprus

机译：DWD有限区域模型LME对塞浦路斯的降水预报进行验证

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A comparison is made between the precipitation forecasts by thenon-hydrostatic limited area model LME of the German Weather Service (DWD)and observations from a network of rain gauges in Cyprus. This is a firstattempt to carry out a preliminary verification and evaluation of the LMEprecipitation forecasts over the area of Cyprus.For the verification, model forecasts and observations were used covering aneleven month period, from 1/2/2005 till 31/12/2005. The observations weremade by three Automatic Weather Observing Systems (AWOS) located at Larnakaand Paphos airports and at Athalassa synoptic station, as well as at 6, 6and 8 rain gauges within a radius of about 30 km around these stations,respectively. The observations were compared with the model outputs,separately for each of the three forecast days.The "probability of detection" (POD) of a precipitation event and the "falsealarm rate" (FAR) were calculated. From the selected cases of the forecastprecipitation events, the average forecast precipitation amounts in the areaaround the three stations were compared with the measured ones.An attempt was also made to evaluate the model's skill in predicting thespatial distribution of precipitation and, in this respect, the geographicalposition of the maximum forecast precipitation amount was contrasted to theposition of the corresponding observed maximum. Maps with monthlyprecipitation totals observed by a local network of 150 rain gauges werecompared with the corresponding forecast precipitation maps.
机译：将德国气象局（DWD）的非静水有限区域模型LME的降水预报与塞浦路斯雨量计网络的观测结果进行了比较。这是首次尝试对塞浦路斯地区的LME降水预报进行初步验证和评估。 为了进行验证，使用了模型预报和观测值，涵盖了从1/2/2005到2005年的十二个月。 2005年12月31日。观测是由三个自动气象观测系统（AWOS）分别位于拉纳卡和帕福斯机场和Athalassa天气站以及这些站周围约30 km半径内的6、6和8个雨量计进行的。在三个预测日中的每一天，分别将观测值与模型输出进行比较。 计算了降水事件的“检测概率”（POD）和“虚警率”（FAR）。从选定的降水事件案例中，将三个站点周围地区的平均预测降水量与实测降水量进行了比较。 还尝试评估该模型在预测降水量和空间分布方面的技巧。在这方面，最大预报降水量的地理位置与相应观测最大值的位置形成对比。将由150个雨量计的本地网络观测到的每月降水总量图与相应的预报降水图进行比较。

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