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Intercomparison of two meteorological limited area models for quantitative precipitation forecast verification

机译：比较两种用于定量降水预报验证的气象有限区域模型

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摘要

The demand for verification of numerical models is still very high, especially for what concerns the operational Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) used, among others, for evaluating the issuing of warnings to the population. In this study, a comparative verification of the QPF, predicted by two operational Limited Area Models (LAMs) for the Italian territory is presented: COSMO-I7 (developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and WRF-NMM (developed at NOAA-NCEP). The observational dataset is the precipitation recorded by the high-resolution non-GTS rain gauges network of the National Civil Protection Department (NCPD) over two years (2007-2008). Observed and forecasted precipitation have been treated as areal quantity (areal average of the values accumulated in 6 and 24 h periods) over the 102 "warning areas", defined by the NCPD both for administrative and hydrological purposes. Statistics are presented through a series of conventional indices (BIAS, POD and POFD) and, in addition, the Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) and the Base Rate (BS or 1-BS) have been used for keeping into account the vanishing of the indices as the events become rare. Results for long-period verification (the whole 2 yr) with increasing thresholds, seasonal trend (3 months period), diurnal error cycle and error maps, are presented. Results indicate that WRF has a general tendency of QPF overestimation for low thresholds and underestimation for higher ones, while COSMO-I7 tends to overestimate for all thresholds. Both models show a seasonal trend, with a bigger overestimation during summer and spring, while during autumn and winter the models tend to be more accurate.
机译：对数字模型进行验证的需求仍然很高，尤其是涉及用于评估向人群发布警告的可操作的定量降水预报（QPF）方面的需求。在这项研究中，对QPF进行了比较验证，并通过两个可操作的意大利区域有限区域模型（LAM）进行了预测：COSMO-I7（在COSMO联盟框架内开发）和WRF-NMM（在NOAA-上开发） NCEP）。观测数据集是由国家民防部门（NCPD）的高分辨率非GTS雨量计网络记录的两年（2007-2008年）降水量。 NCPD出于行政和水文目的，将观测和预报的降水量视作NCPD定义的102个“警告区域”中的面积数量（在6和24小时内累积的值的面积平均值）。统计数据是通过一系列常规指标（BIAS，POD和POFD）呈现的，此外，还使用了极端依赖关系评分（EDS）和基本费率（BS或1-BS）来考虑到统计数据的消失。随着事件变得稀有，索引。提出了随着阈值增加，季节趋势（3个月），昼夜误差周期和误差图而进行的长期验证（整个2年）的结果。结果表明，对于低阈值，WRF普遍存在QPF高估的趋势，而对于较高阈值，WRF具有QPF高估的趋势，而对于所有阈值，COSMO-I7倾向于高估。两种模型均显示出季节趋势，夏季和春季的估计值较高，而秋季和冬季的模型则更准确。

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