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首页> 外文期刊>American journal of applied sciences >THE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY: MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY IN RAILWAY SYSTEM | Science Publications
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THE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY: MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY IN RAILWAY SYSTEM | Science Publications

机译：不确定性管理：铁路系统人为错误概率评估模型科学出版物

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> The methodology of quantitative risk assessment in use in the railway industry refers the RAMS approach, as expected in EN 50126, to define the failure of the system. From the probability of failure follows the evaluation of the failure consequence, the check of the accident occurrence and finally, the analysis of the achievable accident scenarios to quantify the damage as result thereof. In this approach, the central concept is the failure phenomenon, i.e., the deviation of the proper performance of a function by a system component. The case-study is referred to the maintenance procedure, necessary to ensure safe use of the railway infrastructure. The homogeneous treatment of human behaviour in the proposed risk model involves the definition of the function of reliability (or failure) of ?human component? since the maintenance procedure of railway system shows a high probability of human error. The paper analyzes a series of control checks for back analysis testing of accident occurrences and highlights the opportunity to perform quantitative risk analysis comparing alternative designs of railway system by analogical analysis methods. In this analysis the evaluation of human error according to combined techniques of risk analysis and Ishikawa?s theory is relevant because in the railway industry organized procedures of good practice usually have been employed.
机译： >铁路行业中使用的定量风险评估方法参考了EN 50126所期望的RAMS方法来定义系统的故障。从失败的可能性开始，对失败后果进行评估，对事故发生进行检查，最后对可实现的事故场景进行分析，以量化由此造成的损失。在这种方法中，中心概念是故障现象，即系统组件对功能的正确执行的偏离。案例研究涉及维护过程，是确保安全使用铁路基础设施所必需的。在提议的风险模型中对人类行为的同质处理涉及“人类成分”的可靠性（或失效）功能的定义。由于铁路系统的维护程序显示出很高的人为错误概率。本文分析了一系列的控制检查，以对事故发生进行回溯分析测试，并着重介绍了通过类比分析方法比较铁路系统的替代设计进行定量风险分析的机会。在此分析中，根据风险分析和Ishikawa的理论相结合的方法对人为错误进行评估是有意义的，因为在铁路行业中通常采用良好实践的有组织程序。

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