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首页> 外文期刊>Climate >Defining Crop–Climate Departure in West Africa: Improved Understanding of the Timing of Future Changes in Crop Suitability
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Defining Crop–Climate Departure in West Africa: Improved Understanding of the Timing of Future Changes in Crop Suitability

机译：定义西非的作物-气候变化：对作物适应性未来变化时机的更好理解

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The future climate is projected to change rapidly with potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of future changes in the suitability of crop growth conditions. It proposes a definition of crop realization, of the climate departure from recent historical variability, or crop–climate departure. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): CCCMA, CNRM5, NOAA-GFDL, and MIROC5 performed simulations for the period 1960–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario to compute 20 year moving averages at 5-year increments. These were used to drive a crop suitability model, Ecocrop, for eight different crops across the three Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) AgroEcological Zones (AEZs) of West Africa (Guinea, Sahel, and Savanna). Simulations using historical climate data found that all crops except maize had a suitability index value (SIV) ≥0.50 outside the Sahel region, equivalent to conditions being suitable or strongly suitable. Simulations of future climate reveal that warming is projected to constrain crop growth suitability for cassava and pineapple in the Guinea zone. A potential for the northward expansion of maize is projected by the end of the century, suggesting a future opportunity for its growth in the southern Sahel zone. Crop growth conditions for mango and pearl millet remain suitable across all three AEZs. In general, crops in the Savanna AEZ are the most sensitive to the projected changes in climate. The changes in the crop–climate relationship suggests a future constraint in crop suitability, which could be detrimental to future food security in West Africa. Further studies to explore associated short- and long-term adaptation options are recommended.
机译：预计未来的气候将迅速变化，对全球粮食安全可能造成严重后果。这项研究旨在增进对未来作物生长条件适应性变化的理解。它提出了作物实现的定义，气候与近期历史变率的偏离或作物与气候的偏离。四个经过统计缩减和偏差校正的全球气候模型（GCM）：CCMCA，CNRM5，NOAA-GFDL和MIROC5在“代表性浓度路径RCP8.5”情景下进行了1960年至2100年的模拟，以计算20年移动平均值在5时的平均值。年增量。这些被用来为西非的三个粮食及农业组织（FAO）农业生态区（AEZ）（几内亚，萨赫勒和萨凡纳）的八种不同作物驱动适合作物的模型Ecocrop。使用历史气候数据进行的模拟发现，除玉米以外的所有农作物在萨赫勒地区以外的适宜指数值（SIV）≥0.50，相当于适合或非常适合的条件。对未来气候的模拟表明，预计变暖会限制几内亚地区木薯和菠萝的作物生长适应性。预计到本世纪末，玉米向北扩展的潜力，为玉米在萨赫勒南部地区的发展提供了未来的机会。芒果和珍珠粟的作物生长条件仍然适用于所有三个经济特区。通常，热带稀树草原经济区的农作物对预计的气候变化最敏感。作物与气候关系的变化表明，未来作物适应性受到限制，这可能对西非未来的粮食安全有害。建议进一步研究以探索相关的短期和长期适应方案。

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