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A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency

机译:土耳其外汇市场效率的协整检验

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This study examines the within-country market efficiency of the Turkish foreign exchange markets on the basis of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis, in case of the Turkish lira/US dollar and the Turkish lira/Euro for the period February 5, 2005 through July 26, 2013 by Johansen cointegration method. Unit root test results support the market efficiency in its weak-form. However, the existence of cointegration between the forward rates and its corresponding future spot rates with a unitary cointegrating vector and there exists no systematic expectation errors provide evidence for forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis and thus against market efficiency in semi-strong form. In the Turkish lira/US dollar foreign exchange market, the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium is a bit faster, and also the forward rates explain a bit more proportion of the movements of the spot rates in comparison with the Turkish lira/Euro market.
机译:这项研究基于远期汇率无偏假设,以土耳其里拉/美元和土耳其里拉/欧元为基准,研究了2005年2月5日至7月26日期间土耳其外汇市场在国内市场的效率。 ,2013年由Johansen进行协整。单位根测试结果以弱形式支持市场效率。但是,远期汇率及其对应的未来即期汇率之间存在协整向量,并且存在统一的协整关系,并且没有系统的预期误差为远期汇率无偏假设提供了证据,从而以半强形式反对了市场效率。在土耳其里拉/美元外汇市场中,朝着长期均衡的方向调整的速度要快一些,并且远期汇率与土耳其里拉/欧元市场相比解释了即期汇率变动的更多比例。 。

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