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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric chemistry and physics >The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM
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The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

机译：气候模式大规模循环输出的差异对臭氧和PM区域模拟的影响

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Climate change may have an impact on air quality (ozone, particulate matter)due to the strong dependency of air quality on meteorology. The effect isoften studied using a global climate model (GCM) to produce meteorologicalfields that are subsequently used by chemical transport models. However,climate models themselves are subject to large uncertainties and fail toreproduce the present-day climate adequately. The present study illustratesthe impact of these uncertainties on air quality. To this end, output fromthe SRES-A1B constraint transient runs with two GCMs, i.e. ECHAM5 andMIROC-hires, has been dynamically downscaled with the regional climate modelRACMO2 and used to force a constant emission run with the chemistrytransport model LOTOS-EUROS in a one-way coupled run covering the period1970–2060.Results from the two climate simulations have been compared with aRACMO2-LOTOS-EUROS (RLE) simulation forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis forthe period 1989–2009. Both RLE_ECHAM and RLE_MIROC showed considerabledeviations from RLE_ERA for daily maximum temperature, precipitation andwind speed. Moreover, sign and magnitude of these deviations depended on theregion. The differences in average present-day concentrations between thesimulations were equal to (RLE_MIROC) or even larger than (RLE_ECHAM)the differences in concentrations between present-day and future climate(2041–2060). The climate simulations agreed on a future increase in averagesummer ozone daily maximum concentrations of 5–10 μg m?3 in partsof Southern Europe and a smaller increase in Western and Central Europe.Annual average PM10 concentrations increased 0.5–1.0 μg m?3 inNorth-West Europe and the Po Valley, but these numbers are rather uncertain:overall, changes for PM10 were small, both positive and negative changeswere found, and for many locations the two climate runs did not agree on thesign of the change. This illustrates that results from individual climateruns can at best indicate tendencies and should therefore be interpretedwith great care.
机译：由于空气质量强烈依赖于气象学，因此气候变化可能会对空气质量（臭氧，颗粒物）产生影响。通常使用全球气候模型（GCM）来研究这种影响，以产生随后由化学运输模型使用的气象场。但是，气候模型本身存在很大的不确定性，无法充分再现当今的气候。本研究说明了这些不确定性对空气质量的影响。为此，SRES-A1B约束瞬态运行与两个GCM（即ECHAM5和MIROC-hires）的输出已通过区域气候模型RACMO2进行了动态缩减，并用于强制化学排放模型LOTOS-EUROS进行恒定排放运行。 两次气候模拟的结果已与ERA-Interim对1989-2009年进行的重新分析所强迫的aRACMO2-LOTOS-EUROS（RLE）模拟进行了比较。 RLE_ECHAM和RLE_MIROC在每日最高温度，降水量和风速方面均显示出与RLE_ERA的明显差异。此外，这些偏差的符号和大小取决于区域。模拟之间的当前平均浓度差异等于（RLE_MIROC），甚至大于（RLE_ECHAM）当前和未来气候之间的浓度差异（2041-2060）。气候模拟商定，南欧部分地区的夏季平均每日臭氧日最高浓度将在未来增加5-10μgm ？3 ，西欧和中欧的增加幅度较小。年平均PM 10 浓度在北欧和波河谷增加了0.5–1.0μgm ？3 ，但这些数字尚不确定：总体而言，PM 10 的变化是发现的变化很小，既有积极的变化，也有消极的变化，而且在许多地方，两次气候运行并没有就变化的迹象达成共识。这说明单个气候运行的结果最多可以表明趋势，因此应格外小心地进行解释。

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