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Ensemble flood forecasting in Africa: a feasibility study in the Juba–Shabelle river basin

机译：非洲整体洪水预报：朱巴-谢贝利流域的可行性研究

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The European flood alert system (EFAS) achieves early flood warnings for large to medium‐size river basins with lead times of 10 days. This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance of alert thresholds and persistence. The methodologies have been tested for different events and time scales in mid‐latitude basins in Europe. In this article, the transferability of the EFAS‐methodologies to equatorial African basins is assessed with the analysis of the Juba–Shabelle river basin as an example using a variety of different meteorological data sources. In this context, ERA‐40 and CHARM have been used for the calculation of climatologies; re‐forecasts of the current operational European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show that flood events have been detected successfully in more than 85% of all cases, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.
机译：欧洲洪水预警系统＆lpar; EFAS＆rpar;实现大中型连河流域的早期洪水预警，提前期为10天。这基于概率天气预报，超出警报阈值和持续性。该方法已在欧洲中纬度盆地针对不同的事件和时间尺度进行了测试。在本文中，以朱巴-谢贝利河流域的分析为例，使用各种不同的气象数据源，评估了EFAS方法学方法向赤道非洲盆地的可转移性。在这种情况下，使用ERA＆hyphen; 40和CHARM来计算气候。当前运行中的欧洲中型和远程天气预报中心模型的重新预报提供了历史洪水事件的后预报。结果表明，已成功检测到超过85％的洪水事件。在所有情况下，在时间和幅度方面都具有很高的准确性。版权所有©2010皇家气象学会。

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