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首页> 外文期刊>Atmosphere >Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Maritime Continent Rainfall of Wet-Dry Transitional Seasons in the NCEP Climate Forecast Version 2
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Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Maritime Continent Rainfall of Wet-Dry Transitional Seasons in the NCEP Climate Forecast Version 2

机译：NCEP气候预报第2版中的旱季过渡季节海洋大陆降雨的亚季节预测

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摘要

This study investigates the characteristics and prediction of the Maritime Continent (MC) rainfall for the transitional periods between wet and dry seasons. Several observational data sets and the output from the 45-day hindcast by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) are used. Results show that the MC experiences a sudden transition from wet season to dry season (WTD) around the 27th pentad, and a gradual transition from dry season to wet season (DTW) around the 59th pentad. Correspondingly, the westerlies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the easterlies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Australia High become weaker, contributing to weakening of the convergence over the MC. The subtropical western Pacific high intensifies and extends northeastward during the WTD. The Mascarene High becomes weaker, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation forms over the northeast of the Philippines, and an anomalous low-level convergence occurs over the western MC during the DTW. The NCEP CFSv2 captures the major features of rainfall and related atmospheric circulation when forecast lead time is less than three weeks for WTD and two weeks for DTW. The model predicts a weaker amplitude of the changes in rainfall and related atmospheric circulation for both WTD and DTW as lead time increases.
机译：这项研究调查了湿季和干季之间过渡时期海事大陆（MC）降雨的特征和预测。使用了几个观测数据集以及美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）气候预测系统版本2（CFSv2）进行的45天后播的输出。结果表明，MC在第27个五单元组左右经历了从雨季到旱季（WTD）的突然过渡，并且在第59个五单元组左右经历了从旱季到湿季（DTW）的过渡。相应地，赤道印度洋上的西风，赤道太平洋上的东风和澳大利亚高地变弱，这导致了MC辐合的减弱。 WTD期间，副热带西太平洋高压加剧并向东北延伸。在菲律宾东北部，Mascarene高层变弱，在菲律宾东北部形成异常的反气旋环流，并且在MC西部发生了异常的低层辐合。当预测的交货时间少于WTD的三周和DTW的两周时，NCEP CFSv2捕获了降雨和相关大气环流的主要特征。该模型预测，随着提前期的增加，WTD和DTW的降雨和相关大气环流的变化幅度将变弱。

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