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ENSO-Related Precipitation and Its Statistical Relationship with the Walker Circulation Trend in CMIP5 AMIP Models

机译：CMIP5 AMIP模型中ENSO相关的降水及其与沃克环流趋势的统计关系

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Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. All of the 29 models show a strengthening of the WC trend in response to an increase in the SST zonal gradient along the equator. Despite the same SST-constrained AMIP simulations, however, a large diversity is found among the CMIP5 climate models in the magnitude of the WC trend. The relationship between the WC trend and precipitation anomalies (PRCPAs) associated with ENSO (ENSO-related PRCPAs) shows that the longitudinal position of the ENSO-related PRCPAs in the western tropical Pacific is closely related to the magnitude of the WC trend. Specifically, it is found that the strengthening of the WC trend is large (small) in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations in which the ENSO-related PRCPAs are located relatively westward (eastward) in the western tropical Pacific. Therefore, the zonal shift of the ENSO-related precipitation in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with the climatological mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific, could play an important role in modifying the WC trend in the CMIP5 climate models.
机译：观测证据表明，近几十年来热带太平洋的沃克环流（WC）有所加强。在这项研究中，我们使用海表温度（SST）约束的大气模式比对项目（AMIP）模拟，研究了1979-2005年的WC趋势及其与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）相关的降水的关系。耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）气候模型。所有29个模型都显示出，随着赤道沿SST纬向梯度的增加，WC趋势增强了。尽管进行了相同的SST约束AMIP模拟，但是在WCIP趋势量的CMIP5气候模型中发现了很大的差异。 WC趋势与与ENSO（ENSO相关的PRCPAs）相关的降水异常（PRCPA）之间的关系表明，与ENSO相关的PRCPAs在热带西太平洋的纵向位置与WC趋势的大小密切相关。具体来说，在CMIP5 AMIP模拟中发现WC趋势的增强很大（很小），其中ENSO相关的PRCPA位于热带西太平洋的相对偏西（偏东）。因此，与热带太平洋气候平均降水量相关的西部热带太平洋ENSO相关降水的带状偏移可能在改变CMIP5气候模式中的WC趋势中起重要作用。

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