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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Disaster Risk Science >Government Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction Based on a Probabilistic Risk Model: A Case Study of Typhoon Disasters in Shenzhen, China
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Government Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction Based on a Probabilistic Risk Model: A Case Study of Typhoon Disasters in Shenzhen, China

机译：基于概率风险模型的政府在减少灾害风险中的投资-以中国深圳台风灾害为例

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Abstract In recent years, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has played an important role in disaster risk reduction (DRR) investment decisions, and now increasing attention is being paid to its application in developing countries. This article discusses government investment choices in DRR against typhoon disasters in Shenzhen, China. While the existing literature mainly focuses on disaster mitigation measures such as structural retrofitting, this study proposes a holistic framework of DRR investments in which structural (windproof retrofitting) and financial (insurance premium subsidies and post-disaster relief) are all taken into account. In particular, intermeasure spillover effects are measured and used in CBA. The results show that insurance premium subsidies yield the highest benefit-cost ratio and should be prioritized in investment. Windproof retrofitting comes in second place in terms of the benefit-cost ratio and can be considered when there is a sufficient budget. These results further confirm the need of a holistic review of government DRR investments to derive policy recommendations, while challenges remain in relation to the probabilistic modeling capacity to support CBA.
机译：摘要近年来，成本效益分析（CBA）在减少灾害风险（DRR）的投资决策中发挥了重要作用，现在越来越受到发展中国家的关注。本文讨论了针对中国深圳的台风灾害的政府投资选择。虽然现有文献主要集中于减灾措施，例如结构改造，但本研究提出了DRR投资的整体框架，其中将结构（防风改造）和财务（保险费补贴和灾后救济）都考虑在内。特别是，在CBA中测量并使用了措施间溢出效应。结果表明，保险费补贴产生的效益成本比最高，应优先考虑投资。防风改造在收益成本比方面排在第二位，并且在预算充足时可以考虑使用。这些结果进一步证实，需要对政府DRR投资进行整体审查以得出政策建议，同时在支持CBA的概率建模能力方面仍然存在挑战。

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