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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Disaster Risk Science >Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia
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Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia

机译：在城市发展规划和应急准备与响应中整合概率性和多灾种风险评估：在哥伦比亚马尼萨莱斯的应用

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摘要

Abstract The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-the-art risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.
机译：摘要本文介绍了针对哥伦比亚马尼萨莱斯的城市规划和应急活动而开发的多灾种概率风险评估的详细信息。这项风险评估工作是在一个完整的灾难风险管理项目的框架下开发的，该项目的目标是通过使用开放访问和最新的风险模型将降低风险的活动联系起来。概率方法用于分析地震，滑坡和火山灾害，以获得适用于概率损失估计的随机事件集，并在将各种灾害相关的损失进行了严格的汇总之后，以不同的度量标准生成风险结果。详细的高分辨率暴露数据库用于城市的房屋建筑和基础设施，以及针对所考虑的每个危险的一组脆弱性功能。使用危害和风险输入及决定因素对城市的城市和地区订购计划进行了更新，以用于社会经济发展和土地使用，这些决定和决定因素不仅涵盖当前的城市地区，而且涵盖预计将发生马尼萨莱斯扩张的那些邻近地区。考虑到风险情景并更新了自动和实时的震后破坏评估，提高了城市的应急能力。

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