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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Disaster Risk Science >Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Ni?o and Its Impacts
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Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Ni?o and Its Impacts

机译：混乱的阴影：有关预测厄尔尼诺现象的经验教训及其影响

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The troubled forecast of El Ni?o’s onset in 2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Ni?o that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline (weak) El Ni?o event, “trickiest ever to forecast.” That is understandable, as the science of El Ni?o is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Ni?o’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset (as a specific event) should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts (as a process) once the onset has been assured. Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it. Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Ni?o.
机译：厄尔尼诺（El Ni？o）2014年发病情况的前途未卜，需要作出解释，并需要与用户社区进行公开对话，而这取决于如此重要​​的预测。对互联网上的预测的回顾反映了关于所发生事件的两种不同看法。预报界认为他们做对了，而大众媒体则认为预报员做错了。为什么会有这样的差距？几个组织提到的主要厄尔尼诺事件没有实现，甚至没有达到预期。科学界对媒体的狂热引起了人们的关注，该事件回顾起来被认为是不寻常的边界（弱）厄尔尼诺事件，“有史以来最难预测”。这是可以理解的，因为厄尔尼诺的科学仍处于学习曲线上。但是，这表明对厄尔尼诺事件的预报仍处于实验阶段，尚无法运行。一旦确定了发病，应将预测其发作（作为特定事件）与预测其行为和影响（作为过程）分开。每当做出预测时，就有人对此做出响应。因此，为了使那些受到厄尔尼诺现象影响的社会和经济部门受益，这种区分是必要的。

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